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NIO Q3 2022 Investment Note

NIO reports strong third-quarter revenue, whereas higher costs squeeze the margin, bordering on breakeven
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NIO Q3 2022 Investment Note
NIO Q3 2022 Investment Note
Key Takeaways:

Attitude: NIO delivered 31,607 vehicles in Q3 2022, representing a solid growth of 29.3%YoY. During this quarter, NIO achieved solid top line growth against a challenging environment. To meet the growing user demand and shorten the waiting time, the company has been working closely with supply chain partners to accelerate production and delivery. On October 7, NIO formally introduced its compelling products and service to Europe. NIO aims to consistently enhance the holistic user experience by investing in core technology development and power network expansion, while continuously improving operational execution and efficiency.
Guidance: NIO estimates Q4 revenue to be between $2.4 billion and $2.7 billion, jumping 75.4%-94.2% from a year earlier. The company expects to deliver 43,000-48,000 EVs in Q4, up 71.8%-91.7% from Q4 2021. It would also means there is an increase of 36%-52% from Q3's record deliveries. Specifically, NIO expects the ET5 delivery will support a substantial acceleration of overall revenue growth in next quarter. NIO has full confidence in future performance in Europe.
Product: On September 30, NIO kicked off the delivery of ET5, and the preliminary user satisfaction rate exceeded expectations. The casting supply shortage appears mostly behind and ET5 should at least ramp up close to the original 10,000-unit target in Q4. As to NIO ET7, it won the 2022 Golden Steering Wheel award granted by the Auto Bild, as ET7 was voted the best car in the medium and upper-class category. Moreover, NIO plans to launch five new EV models in the H1 2023. NIO has strong confidence in the competitiveness of new models based on the NT2 platform, which has upgraded multiple times with user experience improvement.
NIO Network: In Q3, NIO introduced its products and services to customers in Europe, marking official market entry in Germany, the Netherlands, Denmark, and Sweden. NIO has established an R&D center in Berlin for the deployment of intelligent digital experience and localized development. For the competitive ecosystem, NIO now has 399 sales and service network in 149 cities, 280 service and delivery centers in 163 cities. In terms of the charging and swapping network, NIO has installed 1,210 power swap stations and provided 14 million battery swaps for customers. Currently, NIO's power map has connected to over 590,000 third-party chargers in China and more than 380,000 chargers in Europe.
Earnings Q&A
Q: How do you see the ET5 order intake since the launch and especially after Tesla launched another wave of price cuts in October? Do you see any impact from there?
William Li: Regarding the ET5 orders, the more important thing for us currently is to find a way to deliver the ET5 and shorten the waiting time for the users. Generally speaking, order is not an issue for us regarding ET5. The demand for ET5 is very strong as we expected.
When it come back to Tesla, Tesla often cuts its prices. So, we don't actually think this affects the users demands regarding new products. If we look at the Model 3, there is a big price gap compared with other products. If we compare Model Y with ES6, we don't actually believe that we are competing in the same segment. So, if we look at the pricing of our product and the positioning of our product, we're not competing with Tesla in the same segment.
Q: How will the U.S. semiconductor-ban impact the development of the industry and also NIO?
William Li: Regarding the Chips Act, I believe that this may affect the chip used for cloud training. Right now, I believe that we have sufficient chips like the A100 to satisfy the need for the AD training in the long run. But at the same time, we are also exploring different opportunities.
For example, where considering working together with some cloud service providers, and we are also evaluating some long-term solutions to support the integration of our AD solutions. As of now, I don't actually see any impact on overall operations.
Q: Regarding the surging SG&A expenses, is that just temporary because NIO has new products launching and new markets in Europe? What's your expectation for the trend going forward?
Stanley Qu: The increase of SG&A in Q3 compared with Q2 is because our sales and service network in China and also since we entered more country markets in Europe in Q3. We have more marketing and promotion activities in Q3 compared with Q2. For the long term, SG&A as a percentage of sales revenue will continue to be optimized along with the improvement of our operation efficiency. I think in 2023 and also the coming years, you will see a stable trend for further improvement. For Europe business, the sales and marketing team is about 500 headcounts. Europe is at quite an initial stage and the expense is not a big percentage of the overall SG&A now.
Q: Would you please give us more information whether NIO will break even in Q4 next year or not?
William Li: For the core business of NIO, we are aiming to achieve breakeven in Q3 2023, and this is our plan. Whereas at the same time, we're also working on different strategic new business. For example, we have two new brands and the battery chipset and the smartphone business in next year. So, if we look at 2023, the investment for those strategic new business is going to be around 3 billion RMB to 4 billion RMB. However, we are still confident of achieving the break-even point for NIO core business in the third to fourth quarter of 2023.

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Disclaimer
This article is a script from the NIO Q3 FY22 earnings conference call. In order to facilitate reading, we have made appropriate cuts and revisions. Comments above are made available for informational purposes only. Before investing, please consult a licensed professional. Moomoo Inc. ("moomoo") provides mobile and online technology solutions for securities trading. Moomoo is not an investment adviser or a broker-dealer and it provides neither investment or financial advice nor securities trading services. All contents such as comments and links posted or shared by users of the community are opinions of the respective authors only and do not reflect the opinions, views, or positions of moomoo, its affiliates, or any employees of moomoo or its affiliates. Please consult a qualified investment or tax advisor for your personal financial planning and tax situations. Moomoo is a financial information and trading app offered by Moomoo Technologies Inc. In the U.S., investment products and services available through the moomoo app are offered by Moomoo Financial Inc., a broker-dealer registered with the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) and a member of Financial Industry Regulatory Authority (FINRA)/Securities Investor Protection Corporation (SIPC). In Singapore, investment products and services available through the moomoo app are offered through Moomoo Financial Singapore Pte. Ltd. regulated by the Monetary Authority of Singapore (MAS). Moomoo Financial Singapore Pte. Ltd. is a Capital Markets Services License (License No. CMS101000) holder with the Exempt Financial Adviser Status. This advertisement has not been reviewed by the Monetary Authority of Singapore. In Australia, financial products and services available through the moomoo app are provided by Futu Securities (Australia) Ltd, an Australian Financial Services Licensee (AFSL No. 224663) regulated by the Australian Securities and Investment Commission (ASIC). Please read and understand our Financial Services Guide, Terms and Conditions, Privacy Policy and other disclosure documents which are available on our websites https://www.moomoo.com/au. Moomoo Technologies Inc., Moomoo Financial Inc., Moomoo Financial Singapore Pte. Ltd. and Futu Securities (Australia) Ltd are affiliated companies.
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  • steady Pom pipi : 它不在我的买入名单中LaughLaughLaugh

  • Litement : Yes ofc ,the China Market is wider and Nio product a high quality car with a average market price

  • Milk The Cow : $NIO Inc. USD OV(NIO.SG)$/ $NIO Inc(NIO.US)$ is kinda no good due to many of the negativity of the economy.
    However, I do think that it got potential Emm. But not now any moment due too many negativity in the economy...
    Already knew that it may not do good for the quarter. However, I'm surprised that NIO already start crashing even before the earning released in the way back Trick=Silent.
    Maybe hold for now Emm... = rumors about China economy opening back up (I guess maybe in mid of the year 2023 if it's really true Emm) + the good US CPI result.
    Basically, I think that the stock price may get pulled up based on a sentimental thing (the 2 factors mentioned above) Emm.
    But in term of financial wise, .

  • 矜重的比尔 : 蔚来披露2022年三季度财报,总体来看,营收再次突破了100亿达到了130.02亿,同比增速达到了32.6%,略超预期,但亏损达到了41.11亿元,也超过了预期。所以蔚来问题还是在于亏损扩大,这也是造车新势力的目前都会遇到的问题,短时间也难解决,毕竟电池成本摆在那里,蔚来的车型又基本是新势力里面最多的。好在账面上还有500多亿现金,这个是还没上市新势力所没有的优势,没站稳高端市场,没搞定电池成本之前,这个阵痛估计会持续很久,当然其他厂家也都会很痛苦,就看谁能熬下来。
    1. 营收方面
    蔚来三季度营收130.02亿元,同比增长32.6%,环比增26.4%,营收再次创单季新高。3季度交付了31607辆汽车,车单价达到了37万,接近小鹏的2倍了。增速看似不错,但是我们回忆下蔚来在二季度财报会上提出的3.1万辆至3.3万辆交付指引,蔚来交付量只是勉强达标。压力会在第四季度,准确说是11月和12月。
    2. 毛利方面
    蔚来三季度实现毛利17.34亿元,毛利率13.3%,较上个季度提升0.3%,较去年同期下滑7%,汽车毛利率16.4%,最近几个季度也在一直下降,这个主要还是跟电池成本有关,也是纯电动车的通病,目前新势力还没有能解决这个问题的,看看宁德时代的利润就可以知道新势力厂家毛利有多难了,这个短期也是难解决,只能寄希望后面电池成本能下降了。
    3. 亏损方面
    三季度,蔚来净亏损为41.11亿元,较2021年第三季度扩大392.3%,较2022年第二季度扩大49.1%。扣除股权激励费用,于2022年第三季度的经调整净亏损(非公认会计准则)为34.98亿元,较2021年第三季度扩大22%,较2022年第二季度扩大203.8%。这也是造车新势力的通病,亏损还在扩大。即使是曾经是单季度曾经盈利的理想,现在也是亏损,成本和费用高居不下,短期盈利无望。幸好蔚来融资了不少钱,账面上还有500多亿现金,现在电动车内卷严重,蔚来能活下去还是没问题,那些没融资毛利率比蔚来还低的,其实更加危险。
    4. 费用方面
    三季度,蔚来总费用56.05亿,同比增加87.8%,这费用确实太高了,而且依然在高速增长,研发费用占比达到22%,研发费用增长达到146.4%,可以说蔚来在研发方面的投入还是明显比较大,这跟蔚来的车型比较丰富有关。不过个人觉得蔚来不要学小鹏了,电动车都没搞透,就去搞飞行器,什么手机的还是该放弃的就放弃。蔚来这么多车型的研发投入,够卖几年了,后面新车速度可以慢一点了。
    5. 新能源汽车交付指引
    交付量方面,2022年第三季度,蔚来车辆交付量为31607辆,而指引为3.1万辆至3.3万辆,勉强完成。
    蔚来预计2022年第四季度车辆交付量为43,000辆至48,000辆,较2021年第四季度增长约71.8%至91.7%;收入总额为173.68亿元(24.42亿美元)至192.25亿元(27.03亿美元),较2021年第四季度增长约75.4%至94.2%。虽然指引不及预期,但感觉又是个很具有挑战的数据,因为10月份已经过去了,蔚来只交付了10059辆,意味着11月和12月要交付32947-37941辆,平均每月要交付16400-18900辆,这个怎么感觉都很难!
    6. 后记
    蔚来财报总体来看依然是“高增长,高亏损”的局面,要不是账面躺着500多亿现金,这么大的亏损估计没人能受得了。不过这些也是其他新势力厂家都面临的问题,理想可能好点。别看哪吒交付猛,但毛利和现金流估计会比蔚来差很多,小鹏直接就呵呵了,月交付量只有5000的数量,所以我对蔚来并不是非常悲观。
    现在电动车的竞争集中在电动化方面,传统车企是占据了优势,蔚来选择了纯电模式,在成本方面会有很大压力,但其走的高端路线,车单价37万新势力里面最高的了,交付量如果能按指引达到按月1.5万的级别,我觉得撑个2-3年还是很有希望做成高端。未来2-3年纯电模式估计会有厂家倒下,但一定不是蔚来。蔚来积累了这么多研发,无论在电动化和智能化还是有一些优势,劣质在于电池,在于成本,这个靠死扛了。但蔚来也确实需要把专注于车,个人觉得其他的手机真的没有必要投入,现在这么多款车型在研发在投入,是需要尽快转换成成果的!

  • cola1010 : Nio Limited (NIO) is a Chinese company that designs, develops, manufactures, and sells smart electric vehicles. NIO shares have begun to rise as a result of higher than expected delivery totals. NIO recently reported its Q3 earning, it had delivered above expectation of delivery totals of vehicle, including the premium smart electric SUVs and premium smart electric sedans. This represents a year over year increase of more than 174%. The metric is significant not only because NIO is a fast-growing electric vehicle manufacturer, but also because it operates in the premium segment. Expectations for vehicle sales and total revenue were much higher entering this year, given that the company was ramping up additional production capacity as well as launching new models. Overall, this company can make a strong case for its value as well as strong delivery guidance for the next quarter and full year.

  • zcole1101 : opportunityThumbs Up

  • zcole1101 : my dreamcar

  • kind Dolphin_7635 : 蔚來, 有很好的前景, 廣闊的市場、上升空間.

  • Blessedme : Cannot wait to sell off all China stocks. In case policy change or they did not submit relevant documents to the Securities Exchange, money stuck or gone.

  • Patient Investor : Once China opens up, and fed interest rate hikes cease, we will see china’s economy and stock soaring to the skies possibly going towards pre-Covid period. Only a matter of time for companies like NIO, EV producer, to eventually replace patrol dependent car producing companies

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