UPDATE November 11
yesterday was crazy, it shot up just as I thought but then it kept going ang going and going. I should've seen this coming as now it will peobably hit my previous targets that I had given up on reaching. If we break 284.5 which I expect us to, and push past 286 then its 291 and if we can break through that (which i expect us to) then it's a pretty clear path up to 301 or ~12000NQ (my target from the beginning, I shouldn't have given up on reaching it![]()
) The higher we go the lower we will come down.
this is a rough quick chart of my count and where I think we are. This will perhaps make it a little clearer of what I expect and why I expect it.
I thought we had completed 4 and were going into the final flush before the bottom. Now we had the surge and that should build enough momentum to flush down.
The way the pattern goes is 21 down made up of a 5 down 3 up pattern, this all creates wave A down from the market top. After wave A you get wave B which is a 5 up 3 down pattern for a total count of 13 up. I probably am not explaining that well so here is a chart so you can see what I am trying to explain.
Also with this being the first of a 3 wave move down, you can also see why I expect the lows to be so low and why I have the grim outlook on the markets overall, I know where this is going... 30% down on the first push so far! we will gain some of that back on the B move up only to take another 30%+ off, and those companies that were cut by 70% or more, what do you percieve their future to be when you take 30% back but then give another 70%?
that's why I call so many companies Zombies, they are walking dead, the future rates or slowing economy or whatever other ills will work themselves through this market is going to eliminate them. This is a cleansing.
Here is a closer look at QQQ, and the closer count... We are going up, I now expect to reach 301, do we do it one push? Can we hit it today? after yesterday nothing is impossible. This is still a bear market and this is only a counter trend rally, so watch support and if it starts failing be ready to exit. Cash is the best place to be so that you can enter and exit positions quickly.
note that we have reached the 9 count on the 2 hr, this could be a good spot to pullback, that would be a good entry for another push up... do not hold long/overnight.
here is what I expect going forward. the dip should be bought and one can be cautiously bullish towards 301 or a little over 12000 NQ.
rates and the dollar all crashed as I thought, (i thought the dollar had a chance at support) i just thought we would get a sell everything type "crash" (i know this term is overused). Now that it is not a sell everything event, gold and metals should continue to run off the September bottoms until rates and the dollar find a footing.
as always trade safe be wise and as always
Good Luck![]()
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icezzz : Tq for ur sharing
日生人王 : A great analysis, the higher we in this rebound, the lower we go when it drop!
iamiamOP : I just realised that the red 5 on the 2 he charts is mislabeled, that should be a white 3. sheesh sorry, moving too fast
Violets : I love your honesty
勇敢NewNiu : can call it fractal wave
bwjx : Thanks for sharing your trades with us freely; some charges a premium and not even half as good as yours
. Learnt a lot from you during this period of time and appreciate your sharing in this community. 
PhotoSynth : I ccan't believe so many people have discounted this thesis. Every time the S&P hits its 200 day MA it drops like a rock , as it should in a bear market rally tthat's built up consistent trends and counter trends. And the reality is, we're JUST below it. iI think the smart money has already started taking profits before the lightning rod gets hit. The Dow has already far surpassed its 200 day and the NSDQ seems to have an affinity for its 100 day, which iit's also right on top of. But iit's been a beautiful ride , time to get off…. As I agree,I ddon't know how far down we're going to go but 3000 is NOT off the table when you take the rose colored glasses off. So the big question is where do she land? 3000, 3300….3588 ???