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iamiam wrote a post · Nov 10, 2022 07:23

UPDATE November 10

this is going to be sloppy, the middle part was what I started over the weekend, the rest is me getting a post in, because
UPDATE November 10
it's about to get wild. First off we are going DOWN. Now we MAY go UP first, in fact I expect the markets to do that - push up rapidly - and get slammed no higher than 272 QQQ, (if we can hold 272 on an hourly close could be bullish) to really build some momentum for a downturn *I hope they drive the markets up for an hour or two .
UPDATE November 10
UPDATE November 10
UPDATE November 10
UPDATE November 10
The markets are going DOWN way way DOWN (did I get that point across? do I need to say it again? DOWN). When we get these downturns and inverted yield curves (keep reading) they inevitably lead to washouts (bankruptcy, illiquidity *pick your label of doom). These will happen *happening now in crypto - and no buyers are stepping in - got that? NO BUYERS, 32 billion loss "poof" just like that. let that be a warning if you are holding poor liquidity stocks... Now the good news, when this goes it's going to go quick, get in and hang on, or get out of the way please do not try to buy the "dip" even on up turns,  the markets need your money - don't give it to them. I thought you said good news? yes the good news, this will bottom... first stop is right where we are now, around (these are estimate ranges) 10823
next down is 10395-10200 to watch for a bullish reversal.
10006 -
9618 - my target, the pre covid high... basically taking all the covid bubble out of the market *also possibly collapsing some of those covid runners, spacs etc.
9064
8359 - my bottom, where the 50 week MA crossed the 200MA  post covid drop (the institutional buyers entered the market here post covid crash so this is a good reversal/holding point. mark this on your calendars for early 23)
7953 - probably not going to reach, but might as well throw it in.
and just for fun 4405 - 2024'
my post that I started over the weekend;
Has it really been since Oct 20 with my quick update and almost a month since a real update? time flies -  I feel like it has been forever since I've posted but still feel connected to the moo community. I apologize, but I have been overworked (my own doing) and juggling too many knives to write any good updates that I would feel confident in posting.
Enough of my trash let's get to it.
Dollar - $USD(USDindex.FX)$ "Going down down, baby" I said it in my quick update on Oct 20 and it's still going down.
UPDATE November 10
UPDATE November 10
UPDATE November 10
Yields - Sinking - take that FED 🏴‍☠️🦹‍♂️(that's my jpow as a wannabe super hero screaming at the pirate market who decided to pivot for him)
the below chart is a little decieving as it shows the 2 year at 7 something when it is at ~4.7, I dont know why it does that, maybe predicting the future
UPDATE November 10
although the 2 year will continue to rise $US TREASURY 2 YEAR NOTE ETF(UTWO.US)$ This is because the FED has more control on the 2 year (think about it like this do you believe rates will be 4.5% in 20 years? the market doesn't, but will it in 2? yeah probably)... This is also a TERRIBLE thing as this will increase the SPREAD, what is the spread? the spread is the difference between the 2 and 10, 20 or any higher year yields. and when the shorter dated is paying a higher return than a longer dated treasury, then we have a risk problem. When there is more risk on a shorter dated treasury that is the market telling you there is a recession (what we are in, is just a taste). I am of the belief that the spread goes the widest it's ever been at over 1% on the 2 - 10 spread... now heres something interesting, below is the 3 MONTH treasury and it inverted the 10 year PAIN IS COMING. What this means is that the "recession" is closing in fast, example: the 5 and 10 year treasuries inverted (ie; ok some kind of hiccup in the distant future) then the 2 and 10 year inverted (ie; ok a recession but in few years and maybe not that bad) 6 month and 10 year (ie; ok this is not good we are definitely going to have a recession and next year) 3 month and 10 year inverted (ie; it's coming ) ...(this is probably why big money puts all rolled to Jan)
UPDATE November 10
UPDATE November 10
That's a good thing for stocks, metals, commodities, the rest of the world, American trade (and Banks) .
So let's see where this "good news" leads us. Let's start with the Nasdaq because it's made up of big tech (should love the dollar drop)
And this is where I ended... before completing the irony that the "good news" of a dollar drop was going to lead to the Nasdaq dropping. But now i also believe the dollar has a temporary bottom and is going higher. *This is hard to nail down as it is giving lots of mixed signals, so I keep this in mind - the dollar does not have to rise for the markets to fall - if in fact they both fall that would be a sure sign of STAGFLATION,  which I have said the market is about to "price in" (up until now the markets had priced in ALL .75 rate hikes! that is why they were finding bottoms. Now we are about to price in Stagflation)
UPDATE November 10
If the dollar starts breaking highs watch for a run to 117 where all hell will break loose - and I will get my long predicted (initially i thought September) and awaited precious metals collapse (this fits because huge buyers just came into the market... what better way to wipe them out, right after a big surge in price from their purchases *I hope it wasn't on margin/credit *)
UPDATE November 10
UPDATE November 10
UPDATE November 10
UPDATE November 10
"smart" money, is bearish $Ishares Iboxx $ High Yield Corporate Bond Etf(HYG.US)$. this is the chart to watch and see when the bottom is forming.
UPDATE November 10
all this bearishness being said, there is a possibility this goes down and recovers if NQ goes into the 10200 level watch the HYG for reversals.
UPDATE November 10
I know its confusing;
is the dollar going up or down? I can't tell yet and will not be able to until it breaks previous highs or reaches new lows.
what is the market going to do exactly? I cant tell and anyone who can is guessing, I can react correctly and prepare in advance of the possibilities.
what I do know is we are going down and should be bearish for the next couple of weeks - unless we can hold above 272 QQQ on hourly candles, then we would be building a bullish push. I am not seeing much that would lead me to be bullish but that doesn't mean the markets couldn't do it and be bullish.
as always be careful trade wisely and as always Good Luck
UPDATE November 10
I could be on the road at work or working from home so today is full of possible outcomes
oh and HAPPY BIRTHDAY Marines!
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iamiam
Engineer, Commodity Buyer, Alert Bettor, Tesla 🌬 Commodities BULL🐘 Precious Metals Dragon 🐲 and OIL Trumpeter 🗣🎺
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