Is the Market Short-Term Outlook Bullish or Bearish?
Check out this short video to get the current analysis for the S&P 500 in the link below.
From YouTube
October was very bullish. The start to November has been rough for the S&P 500 as well as the other major indices. Most of the damage occured following Jerome Powell's comments after the Fed's interest rate decision.
You can see the bullish price channel that the price of SPY was traveling within last month. After J. Powell spoke the market quickly dropped out of this price channel. This is a short-term bearish technical development. This could possibly be a small correction to the 8% uptick in price during October. The bullishness in October could very well continue but at the moment SPY's price needs to climb a little higher before any bullish continuation in price action can be confirmed.
The lower lows being formed on the 4-hour candles is an indication that the short-term trend could possibly be changing.
Of the 11 S&P sector indices generally everything is looking bullish. Aside from the communications services index and the consumer discretionary sector index most of the S&P sectors are traveling within a bullish price channel. When you see a picture like this, with the S&P sectors generally performing better that the S&P 500 index, it shows you that there are just a few big names that are dragging down the major index. Heavyweight allocations like $Apple(AAPL.US$, $Alphabet-C(GOOG.US$, $Microsoft(MSFT.US$, $Amazon(AMZN.US$, and $Tesla(TSLA.US$are the main culprits that are dragging down the SPY as they are some of the biggest allocations in the index and they have been performing much worse than most of the S&P sector indices.
In the chart below I have highlighted the downward trending resistance line that SPY's bullish price action flipped to bearish. You can see that resistance highlighted by the purple line in the chart. J. Powells comment coincided with a reversal at this trendline. I have also highlighted the downward sloping long-term bear market resistance by the red line at the top of the chart. I thought SPY was going to climb to this resistance before reversing and continuing downward in this bear market.
The markets bullishness could come back this week possibly. It is too soon to tell at this point. If this week starts off bullish then I am watching the 3800 price point for resistance. This price coincides with a long-term Fibonacci level which can be considered a strong support/resistance level for some investors. If the price can get above this fib level and the downward sloping resistance I mentioned above then that would be confirmation for me that October's bullishness will continue.
From a technical standpoint it appears that the uptick that started in October is over. But it is too soon to call at the moment. If the price of SPY drops below the lows of day from Friday then the picture will look a lot more bearish. Personally Im still on the fence myself untill more data comes in.
$SPDR Dow Jones Industrial Average Trust(DIA.US$ $Invesco QQQ Trust(QQQ.US$ $SPDR S&P 500 ETF(SPY.US$ $iShares Russell 2000 ETF(IWM.US$ $VIX Index Futures(MAY4)(VXmain.US$ $Gold Futures(JUN4)(GCmain.US$ $Powershares Exchange Traded Fd Tst Db Us Dollar Index Bullish Fund Etf(UUP.US$ $SPDR Gold ETF(GLD.US$ $iShares Silver Trust(SLV.US$ $Ishares Iboxx $ High Yield Corporate Bond Etf(HYG.US$ $Ishares Iboxx $ Investment Grade Corporate Bond Etf(LQD.US$ $iShares 20+ Year Treasury Bond ETF(TLT.US$ $Crude Oil Futures(JUN4)(CLmain.US$
$TENCENT(00700.HK$ $SSE Composite Index(000001.SH$ $CSI 300 Index(000300.SH$ $CSI 300 Index(000300.SH$ $FTSE Singapore Straits Time Index(.STI.SG$ $NIO-SW(09866.HK$ $NIO Inc. USD OV(NIO.SG$ $NIO Inc(NIO.US$ $BILIBILI-W(09626.HK$ $Bilibili(BILI.US$ $Baidu(BIDU.US$ $BIDU-SW(09888.HK$ $XPeng(XPEV.US$ $Li Auto(LI.US$ $BYD COMPANY(01211.HK$ $BYD Company Limited(002594.SZ$ $S&P/ASX 200(.XJO.AU$ $FTSE Singapore Straits Time Index(.STI.SG$
$SPDR Dow Jones Industrial Average Trust(DIA.US$ $Invesco QQQ Trust(QQQ.US$ $SPDR S&P 500 ETF(SPY.US$ $iShares Russell 2000 ETF(IWM.US$ $VIX Index Futures(MAY4)(VXmain.US$ $Gold Futures(JUN4)(GCmain.US$ $Powershares Exchange Traded Fd Tst Db Us Dollar Index Bullish Fund Etf(UUP.US$ $SPDR Gold ETF(GLD.US$ $iShares Silver Trust(SLV.US$ $Ishares Iboxx $ High Yield Corporate Bond Etf(HYG.US$ $Ishares Iboxx $ Investment Grade Corporate Bond Etf(LQD.US$ $iShares 20+ Year Treasury Bond ETF(TLT.US$ $Crude Oil Futures(JUN4)(CLmain.US$
$TENCENT(00700.HK$ $SSE Composite Index(000001.SH$ $CSI 300 Index(000300.SH$ $CSI 300 Index(000300.SH$ $FTSE Singapore Straits Time Index(.STI.SG$ $NIO-SW(09866.HK$ $NIO Inc. USD OV(NIO.SG$ $NIO Inc(NIO.US$ $BILIBILI-W(09626.HK$ $Bilibili(BILI.US$ $Baidu(BIDU.US$ $BIDU-SW(09888.HK$ $XPeng(XPEV.US$ $Li Auto(LI.US$ $BYD COMPANY(01211.HK$ $BYD Company Limited(002594.SZ$ $S&P/ASX 200(.XJO.AU$ $FTSE Singapore Straits Time Index(.STI.SG$
$Apple(AAPL.US$ $Tesla(TSLA.US$ $Microsoft(MSFT.US$ $Amazon(AMZN.US$ $NVIDIA(NVDA.US$ $Meta Platforms(META.US$ $Alphabet-C(GOOG.US$
$Chevron(CVX.US$ $Phillips 66(PSX.US$ $Valero Energy(VLO.US$ $Devon Energy(DVN.US$ $Occidental Petroleum(OXY.US$ $W&T Offshore(WTI.US$ $United States Oil Fund LP(USO.US$ $United Sts Brent Oil Fd Lp Unit(BNO.US$ $Imperial Petroleum(IMPP.US$ $Houston American Energy(HUSA.US$ $Indonesia Energy(INDO.US$ $BP PLC(BP.US$ $Exxon Mobil(XOM.US$
$Mullen Automotive(MULN.US$ $Arcimoto(FUV.US$ $Nikola(NKLA.US$ $Fisker(FSR.US$ $Rivian Automotive(RIVN.US$ $Lordstown Motors(RIDE.US$ $Full Truck Alliance(YMM.US$ $Ford Motor(F.US$ $General Motors(GM.US$
$Chevron(CVX.US$ $Phillips 66(PSX.US$ $Valero Energy(VLO.US$ $Devon Energy(DVN.US$ $Occidental Petroleum(OXY.US$ $W&T Offshore(WTI.US$ $United States Oil Fund LP(USO.US$ $United Sts Brent Oil Fd Lp Unit(BNO.US$ $Imperial Petroleum(IMPP.US$ $Houston American Energy(HUSA.US$ $Indonesia Energy(INDO.US$ $BP PLC(BP.US$ $Exxon Mobil(XOM.US$
$Mullen Automotive(MULN.US$ $Arcimoto(FUV.US$ $Nikola(NKLA.US$ $Fisker(FSR.US$ $Rivian Automotive(RIVN.US$ $Lordstown Motors(RIDE.US$ $Full Truck Alliance(YMM.US$ $Ford Motor(F.US$ $General Motors(GM.US$
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BeBlessed : Excellent sharing. Thank you for putting in so much efforts, Bro Spyder. Hope all is well with you.
SpyderCallOP BeBlessed: You are very welcome. I am always glad to share. All is well over here my friend. I hope all is well with you also.
BeBlessed SpyderCallOP: Yeah am good. Have been staying sideline for most of the times. DJ is too choppy for me to trade intraday.
SpyderCallOP BeBlessed: agreed. The market has been very choppy for day trading for a couple months
SpyderCallOP BeBlessed: if you didnt want to wait for the indices to get less choppy then you could always pick a single stock to trade. Like for instance some of the sectors are performing much better than the spy. and some single stocks in those sectors are performing very good. for instance anything in the energy sector, a lot of healthcare companies are performing better than the spy. even some companies in the travel and leisure sector are performing much better than the spy. A lot of the media is calling it a stock pickers market. when spy is choppy like this then just find a good single stock and sing trade it.
BeBlessed SpyderCallOP: Many thanks for the suggestion, Bro Spyder. I shall start to look into them.
In the meantime I'm waiting to buy the dip of AAPL.
SpyderCallOP : when apple bottoms out it will be one of the best dip buy opportunities ever
thoughtful Leopard_6 BeBlessed: How is Yoyo's harvest?
BeBlessed SpyderCallOP: my exact sentiments too
Shasta_Pro : I'm looking forward to learning how to use trade to my advantage to make millions of dollars from here on out.
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