Vote Now | Are we in a recession?
You may heard this debate everywhere: Is the U.S. economy in a recession?
According to a September poll by Cinch Home Services, about 76% of Americans believe the economy is already in a recession.
In fact, the answer is hard to say. This debate is complicated because current economic indicators tend to disagree with one another and diverge from historical recession trends, obscuring a definite answer.
And you will get different stories from the Federal Reserve, economists, business leaders or the Biden Administration.
Federal Reserve
Fed Chair Jerome Powell said in July that he does not think the U.S. is currently in a recession and pointed to the strong labor market as evidence.
"I do not think the U.S. is currently in a recession and the reason is there are too many areas of the economy that are performing too well," Powell said. "This is a very strong labor market ... it doesn't make sense that the economy would be in a recession with this kind of thing happening."
Despite the rise of inflation this year, and the Fed hiking interest rates five times in an effort to bring it down, September's 3.5% unemployment rate matched the lowest level in 50 years.
Biden Administration
U.S. GDP accelerated at 2.6% pace in Q3. The U.S. economy posted its first period of positive growth for 2022 in the third quarter, at least temporarily easing recession fears, the Bureau of Economic Analysis reported Thursday. President Joe Biden saying it shows the economy is "continuing to power forward."
Top economic adviser to President Biden, Brian Deese said last week that he believes the US economy can avoid a recession altogether.
The "strength and resilience" in the US labor market and in household balance sheets has put the US in a better position than other developed economies.
Economists
Most economists don't believe the U.S. is in a recession right now, only 11% of economists surveyed by the National Association of Business Economics (NABE) this month said they believe the U.S. is already in a recession.
Meanwhile, many top economists argue the robust labor market is evidence that a recession isn't here quite yet.
"While many economic indicators suggest the economy is likely to slow ahead, the claims data suggest the labor market is still holding up quite well and that the economy is probably not in a recession in October,” Bill Adams, chief economist at Comerica Bank said.
The coming economic "hurricane"
While most economists don't believe the US is in a recession right now, they do argue that one is on the way. And business leaders are even more pessimistic.
$Tesla(TSLA.US$ CEO Elon Musk even said he believes the US economy is already in a recession that could last until the spring of 2024.
Roughly 98% of CEOs said they believe a recession is coming by the middle of 2024 in a recent Conference Board survey .
$Amazon(AMZN.US$'s Jeff Bezos also warned that the economy was sending a signal to "batten down the hatches".
$JPMorgan(JPM.US$ CEO Jamie Dimon, who has previously warned of a "hurricane" ahead, said consumers would likely run through the cushion in their bank accounts by the middle of next year.
mooers, what do you think? Share your opinions on whether United States is entering—or already entered, or will soon enter—a recession? Or, we will avoid the recession?
According to a September poll by Cinch Home Services, about 76% of Americans believe the economy is already in a recession.
In fact, the answer is hard to say. This debate is complicated because current economic indicators tend to disagree with one another and diverge from historical recession trends, obscuring a definite answer.
And you will get different stories from the Federal Reserve, economists, business leaders or the Biden Administration.
Federal Reserve
Fed Chair Jerome Powell said in July that he does not think the U.S. is currently in a recession and pointed to the strong labor market as evidence.
"I do not think the U.S. is currently in a recession and the reason is there are too many areas of the economy that are performing too well," Powell said. "This is a very strong labor market ... it doesn't make sense that the economy would be in a recession with this kind of thing happening."
Despite the rise of inflation this year, and the Fed hiking interest rates five times in an effort to bring it down, September's 3.5% unemployment rate matched the lowest level in 50 years.
Biden Administration
U.S. GDP accelerated at 2.6% pace in Q3. The U.S. economy posted its first period of positive growth for 2022 in the third quarter, at least temporarily easing recession fears, the Bureau of Economic Analysis reported Thursday. President Joe Biden saying it shows the economy is "continuing to power forward."
Top economic adviser to President Biden, Brian Deese said last week that he believes the US economy can avoid a recession altogether.
The "strength and resilience" in the US labor market and in household balance sheets has put the US in a better position than other developed economies.
Economists
Most economists don't believe the U.S. is in a recession right now, only 11% of economists surveyed by the National Association of Business Economics (NABE) this month said they believe the U.S. is already in a recession.
Meanwhile, many top economists argue the robust labor market is evidence that a recession isn't here quite yet.
"While many economic indicators suggest the economy is likely to slow ahead, the claims data suggest the labor market is still holding up quite well and that the economy is probably not in a recession in October,” Bill Adams, chief economist at Comerica Bank said.
The coming economic "hurricane"
While most economists don't believe the US is in a recession right now, they do argue that one is on the way. And business leaders are even more pessimistic.
$Tesla(TSLA.US$ CEO Elon Musk even said he believes the US economy is already in a recession that could last until the spring of 2024.
Roughly 98% of CEOs said they believe a recession is coming by the middle of 2024 in a recent Conference Board survey .
$Amazon(AMZN.US$'s Jeff Bezos also warned that the economy was sending a signal to "batten down the hatches".
$JPMorgan(JPM.US$ CEO Jamie Dimon, who has previously warned of a "hurricane" ahead, said consumers would likely run through the cushion in their bank accounts by the middle of next year.
mooers, what do you think? Share your opinions on whether United States is entering—or already entered, or will soon enter—a recession? Or, we will avoid the recession?
Source: Fortune, Yahoo Finance, CNBC
Disclaimer: Community is offered by Moomoo Technologies Inc. and is for educational purposes only.
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WarEagle84 : Been in it for awhile now what the Government wanted
Life not simple : Yes, we are in recession
101535067 : Even if technical
Light Side Randy : Been in for months. But US government administration said no.
bullshyt : inflation up, cost of living up. People tightening purse-strings, all points to recession. just that this recession is unlike any of the past we had. we still had a strong Labour Market and some still had deep pockets to buy expensive items.
HengOngHuat888 : Yes we are there technically
NMPUDI : In
SG6096 : yes
T2000 : its pretty obvious we are in a big recession and it has just started. gonna get ugly
Gilbert Irving : yes been in one for at least 6 months
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