Analysts' EBITDA forecast for Grab

$Grab Holdings(GRAB.US)$
Grab will continue to maintain a strong balance sheet by preserving cash prudently. Investments will continue to be made in developing products and technological innovations. On the M&A front, Grab will remain selective and only consider targets which are earnings accretive and possess elements that support Grab’s current ecosystem.

According to $CGS(06881.HK)$ analysts Ong Khang Chuen and Kenneth Tan, this would bring FY2022 adjusted ebitda loss to US$901 million, as compared to their expectations of US$900 million and Bloomberg’s consensus of US$980 million.

As the Grab’s guidance expects US$1.25 billion to US$1.30 billion in revenue for FY2022, which according to $DBS Group Holdings(D05.SG)$ Research, implies an average growth of 89%, compared to 106% in its model. DBS’ FY2023 projections imply a 77% revenue growth, hence even the high end of the guidance is much lower than the research house’s expectations.

$Citigroup(C.US)$’s Alicia Yap and Nelson Cheung however has estimated FY2023 revenue to come in at US$1.77 billion, lower than the US$1.85 billion to US$1.98 billion Grab has expected for FY2023. “With a mix of higher margins revenues and improving operation efficiency with optimisation of discretionary spending, Grab targets to achieve group adjusted ebitda break even in 2HFY2024, compared to our forecast of FY2024 ebitda loss of US$324 million,” writes Yap and Cheung.