UPDATE September 26
BLACK MONDAY well maybe not monday but soon. It's bad it's going to get worse, please do not be long overnight. iam shorting all market spikes and peaks. The only things iam watching to buy (ONLY WATCHING) are Energy (oil, nat gas, uranium) and Food (corn specifically but also fertilizer).
American Banks are holding tons of loans (debt mostly home) and now record repos (assets and banks dont like assets, mostly autos) and both are declining in value. They must soon start selling off these repos at losses (this will get reported to shareholders and it will also effect their ability to obtain loans). Then they are faced with all the loans on declining assets (homes). When the layoffs come (and they will/are) this will be the housing crash all over again (overall I believe this "crash" will be worse, much worse), because of the next factor. $Financial Select Sector SPDR Fund(XLF.US$
Foreign Banks own too much dollar denominated assets and debt (about 12 Trillion). They need dollars to pay their debts. They will sell their assets (US bonds, stock, real estate) for dollars.
This is happening, Japan started the selling of US treasuries, and this is a giant game of chicken with the last one selling getting lower prices on their US sales and low return on their dollar buys (higher dollar). This can start a cascade as was seen when banks unloaded Archagos Capital debt holdings in March 2021.
A massive selloff on Monday would not surprise me, I give it a 60% chance. I lean more bearish over a bullish bounce because a lot of investors went long or covered shorts Friday in anticipation of a bounce, that might be all the fuel the market needs to selloff.
The big one holding the markets "up" is APPL. AAPLE is at pivot point. I believe it pivots down, and goes way down to 120 (not in 1 day obviously) $Apple(AAPL.US$
The 2 hr looks bullish for the day, the weekly and daily are both bearish. Because Apple has held up so well it is my short target. It hasn't fallen like the other stocks. Don't be fooled apple isn't special or a safe haven it is simply the most invested in stock. Almost all and any of the the ETFs hold apple, most countries will hold apple as an american asset. and I already said these large entities are getting ready to sell american assets for american dollars.
The bullish view is that the market is oversold and the count has hit 9. These are BULLISH, however the biggest selloffs happened when the markets were oversold and investors were expecting a bounce, sometimes that's all the fuel the market needs to go down, this is also how you get capitulation. iam shorting any sign of strength. We still have a month of full BEAR. That does NOT mean we won't get spikes, but these should be shorted until the BEAR goes into hibernation.
Off to work. As always trade safely, be wise and
Good Luck ![]()
Some only see the stormy seas while others see the perfect wave.
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101828445 : Thank you for your updates always!
rengoku : sqqq gonna bank it seems
MooMooTan : Rebounds, oh yeah, please goes up more , too expensive now
icezzz : Is it late to buy sqqq?
iamiamOP icezzz: never as long as the market has room down, which this does
icezzz iamiamOP: Thanks for ur reply
sayno : Always thankful & looking forward for your insights
NinaL : God. There were signs of a rebound in late trading. I wonder how long this rebound will last?
mrbenje : @iamiamdo you have a YT channel or paid service? Would love to follow your trades.
iamiamOP NinaL: it looked to me like it was shorted down again, I think we are still bearish (I think the market continues to go down unless bulls fight like crazy to force some short covering, which can happen especially if new shorts just jumped in). I saw a lot of bullish traders and tv saying it's ok to buy for a bounce, so we will see how many they sucker in to get a bump.
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