What to Expect in the Week Ahead (COST, FDX, GIS, LEN)

The week's main event will be the Federal Open Market Committee's two-day meeting, which ends on Wednesday. Futures pricing suggests the greatest odds of a third-straight rate hike of 0.75 percentage points.

Economic data out this week will feature several indicators of the health of the U.S. housing market. The National Association of Home Builders releases its Housing Market Index for September on Monday, the Census Bureau will report housing starts for August on Tuesday, and the National Association of Realtors reports existing-home sales for August on Wednesday.

AutoZone reports fourth-quarter fiscal-2022 results.

The National Association of Home Builders releases its Housing Market Index for September. Economists forecast a 48.5 reading, about even with the August data. The index has fallen every month this year and in August breached the key break-even measure of 50 for the first time since May of 2020.

The Census Bureau reports new residential construction statistics for August. Expectations are for a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 1.45 million privately owned housing starts, matching the July figure.

The National Association of Realtors reports existing-home sales for August. Consensus estimate is for a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 4.7 million existing homes sold, about 100,000 fewer than in July.

General Mills and Lennar release earnings.

The Federal Open Market Committee announces its monetary-policy decision. Just two weeks ago, Wall Street was debating whether the FOMC would raise the federal-funds rate by 50 or 75 basis points. After another strong jobs report and a hotter-than-expected print for the August consumer price index, a three-quarters of a percentage point interest-rate hike seems all but assured. That would bring the fed-funds rate to 3.0%-3.25%. Traders are even pricing in a 25% chance that the central bank will raise its key short-term rate by a full percentage point, which would be the largest move in nearly four decades.

Accenture, Costco Wholesale, Darden Restaurants, FactSet Research Systems, and FedEx hold conference calls to discuss quarterly results.

The Bank of Japan announces its monetary-policy decision. The central bank is expected to maintain its ultralow interest-rate policy and keep its target rate unchanged at negative 0.1%, as it has been since early 2016. The dovish BOJ, in contrast to the hawkish U.S. Federal Reserve, has sunk the yen to its lowest level against the U.S. dollar since 1998.

The Conference Board releases its Leading Economic Index for August. The consensus call is for a 0.1% month-over-month increase, after a 0.4% decline in July. The index has fallen for five consecutive months, indicating that the risk of a recession is rising in the near term.

S&P Global releases both its Manufacturing and Services Purchasing Managers' indexes for September. Economists forecast a 51 reading for the Manufacturing PMI and a 45.3 for the Services PMI. This compares with 51.5 and 43.7, respectively, in August.