What to Expect in the Week Ahead (ORCL, ADBE, SBUX, TWTR)

The main event this week will be the latest inflation data, with significant implications for Federal Reserve policy and the economy. A handful of companies will report earnings and host investors days.

The economic-data highlight of the week will be Tuesday's August Consumer Price Index from the Bureau of Labor Statistics. Wednesday will bring the August producer price index.

Other economic data to be released this week includes August retail sales data from the Census Bureau on Thursday and a pair of sentiment indicators: The National Federation of Independent Businesses' Small Business Optimism Index for August on Tuesday and the University of Michigan's Consumer Sentiment Index for September on Friday.

Oracle reports first-quarter fiscal-2023 results.

The BLS releases the consumer price index for August. Economists forecast that the CPI will increase 8.1% year over year, after a 8.5% jump in July. The core CPI is seen gaining 6.1%, compared with 5.9% previously.

Corteva and Starbucks host investor days.

Twitter holds an extraordinary shareholder meeting to vote on the proposed $44 billion acquisition by Tesla CEO Elon Musk. Twitter has filed a lawsuit in Delaware Chancery court against Musk to hold him to the original merger agreement. Musk wants to walk away from the deal, claiming that Twitter "has not complied with its contractual obligations." A five-day trial is expected to commence on Oct. 17.

The National Federation of Independent Business releases its Small Business Optimism Index for August. Consensus estimate is for a 90 reading, roughly even with the July data. The index remains mired near a decade low as small-business owners try to navigate historic inflation, labor shortages, and supply-chain disruptions.

The Bureau of Labor Statistics releases the producer price index for August. Economists forecast that the PPI will increase 8.9% year over year, while the core PPI is expected to rise 7.0%. This compares with gains of 9.8% and 7.6%, respectively, in July.

Adobe holds a conference call to discuss earnings.

Danaher and Humana hold investor meetings.

The Federal Reserve Bank of New York releases its Empire State Manufacturing Survey for September. Expectations are for a 2.1 reading, roughly 33 points better than August's negative 31.3. The index plummeted 42 points from July to August, the second-largest monthly decline on record, after the pandemic-induced drop in April of 2020.

The Census Bureau reports retail sales data for August. The consensus call is for consumer spending to rise 0.2% month over month, while sales excluding autos are seen gaining 0.6%. Both figures would be 0.2 percentage points more than the July increases.

The University of Michigan releases its Consumer Sentiment Index for September. Consensus estimate is for a 59.3 reading, about one point more than August's 58.2. The Federal Reserve will be keenly watching consumer expectations of inflation from the survey.

In 2019 congressional testimony, Fed Chairman Jerome Powell said, "In our thinking, inflation expectations are now the most important driver in actual inflation." Both one- and five-year inflation expectations have declined from their recent peaks but remain near a decade high.