the DOLLAR the FED & the FUTURE?
I have posted a lot about the dollar and how it punishes Multinationals, Other World Currencies and Commodities particularly gold and silver
The dollar has been on a historic run, and it should continue. 112
A series of charts
The crushing of currencies:
The Euro used to be worth more than the dollar, look at it now. This is the currency war - the US exports inflation - The dollar is used as the world trade currency so everyone needs it to trade internationally - when we tighten the money supply, it becomes harder to trade internationally (*it is harder to get dollars so the foreign traders end up paying more of that nation's currency for the available dollars)
*where did the dollars go: as another side note, see the money leaving lately? The bet is in that the FED is done with the rate of increasing rates (market is FORWARD thinking) ie. no more .75 the bet is .5 then .25 .25
The ECB is raising rates the bet is .75 the announcement comes on Thursday the 8th.
IF as the big money bettors are predicting the ECB has just begun serious tightening and raises .75 and IF the US raises .5 and is seen as declining rate increases or loosening - THESE CHARTS SHOULD REVERSE
Here are the yields, specifically the 2 yr and 10 yr so you can also see the inversion. The inversion is the rate on the 2 year being higher than the 10 year - it does this because money is fearing "short" term danger, so it's fleeing short term assets for the relative safety of longer term bonds.
*This same fear also leads many firms to sell stocks in favor of bonds, if you foresee negative growth for a time then some return is better than a loss. Even with the short term loss to inflation the bet is that inflation will come down and the rate of return would be neutral to positive by maturity.
You could look at any world currency and the dollar is crushing it - this is going to reverse...
This is how the dollar on the charts above will top.
It is my belief that will cause a severe drop in the markets for probably the rest of the week, EVENTHOUGH the indices are oversold, this will be the crush.
with the shift in rate sentiment changing, next Tuesdays FED meeting should be a catalyst up. Now JPoww could stay hawkish and crush the markets again, but the smart money is betting against that. This could just be that the market is conditioned to believe the FED wont crash it.
looking to breakout of the resistance, you can imagine the line right below at where the price is currently.
The Nasdaq futures
$Apple(AAPL.US$ is the largest percentage of the indicies and has a big announcement today- it is my belief that this is an opportunity to sell.
Out of all this the only thing that is sure is the current dollars rise. If you cant tell this was written and charts taken over about a 12 hour period, my view didn't change, just not sure if the markets will drop as far as I thought because of money positioning (or lack of) for next Tuesday.
As always
Good Luck ![]()
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APRoyalOak : @iamiamU an expert and can.advise what to buy
icezzz : This week remain bearish, continue hold Sqqq?
iamiamOP icezzz: this week iam still bearish, I think this little bull run ends in an hour or so.
iamiamOP APRoyalOak: I dont know what your time frame is but KOLD for a few weeks, DRIP for a few days until oil hits 80 but very volatile, SQQQ until momentum changes
APRoyalOak : Noted with thanks. Aim it and sell off.once have 8% profit
icezzz iamiamOP: Thanks for ur sharing