Meat cutting Hong Kong stock

2021.7.27 was the biggest operation this year, clearing Tencent, Haidilao, and JD logistics. Let's talk about the logic one by one:

First, let's talk about the one with the thickest eyebrows and big eyes $TENCENT(00700.HK)$ 。 Previously, in my opinion, Tencent was the kind of stock that you never had to withdraw from, just like...

However, with the implementation of the double reduction policy, I have gained a new understanding of the strength of the country's policy and firm attitude. Furthermore, according to information recently released by the Internet Information Office and other ministries, although they did not name names, Tencent and Meituan are clearly wanted No. 1 and No. 2.

More than half of the richest people in the US are involved in the Internet, but the mainland policy is now reversed. The Internet cannot be a powerful country; only “hard technology” can make a strong country. But what exactly is hard technology? Are Internet companies' big data, cloud services, and mobile payments considered hard technology? Seems like it doesn't count in the boss's eyes.

Yesterday, there was a rumor that senior leaders of the Securities Regulatory Commission summoned all investment banks to a meeting. The effect is that the education and training policy is targeted and will not hit other industries. Therefore, technology, pharmaceuticals, food and beverage, etc. that were sold the worst before yesterday's A-shares and Hong Kong stocks have rebounded. However, in my opinion, even if the news of the meeting is true, there is a feeling that the fellow countrymen are not leaving. The feeling of the sword of Damocles hanging over my head is very bad. I don't know when what policy will come out again. You don't know if the policy is Big Stick+Honey, or if they just hurt you.

I removed Tencent's logic because of the huge uncertainty about future policies. I'm afraid; it's as simple as that. Tencent costs more than 380, and it still earns more or less points.

2. Haidilao $HAIDILAO(06862.HK)$ 。 What finally made me decide to cut meat was because I went on a business trip to Nantong for two days on 7.27-28. I only arrived to eat in the city at 2 p.m., and happened to see Haidilao, so I asked my friends in Nantong what they thought about Haidilao. My friend bluntly said, “Who is still eating Haidilao now...

To be honest, when it comes to Haidilao's judgment, I made a psychological mistake. Munger also mentioned, that is, people usually cannot have a completely objective view of what they have. As an example in practice, after people buy a car, they usually tend to praise the car when talking to others. Even if the car does have some minor problems, they often avoid talking about it, and may even devalue the cars of some competing brands.

Another reason for the clearance of Haidilao is the recurrence of the epidemic. The Nantong I went to is very close to Nanjing. Recently, the delta virus has spread in Nanjing, and there have been individual cases in other regions. A variant of the virus has broken through the control of existing vaccines. This once-in-a-century outbreak may last far longer than people can imagine. Let's put up a map of the latest data on new and confirmed cases.

Haidilao really made me miserable. I lost Hong Kong dollars. My biggest lesson from last year was who to learn from shorting; this year, I went to the bottom of the sea to the bottom. But it's worth the loss.

3. JD Logistics $JD LOGISTICS(02618.HK)$ . The logistics industry is really busy. In some industries, everyone can consciously maintain a certain profit margin and will not maliciously fight price wars. The end is very happy. However, in some industries, the internal situation is particularly serious. For example, the logistics industry is not making any money because of the chaos caused by J&T Express; for example, mobile phones are due to Xiaomi $XIAOMI-W(01810.HK)$ , Honor. Apart from Apple, Samsung, and Huawei, there is still some profit margin, and it is difficult for other mobile phone brands to even survive.

The catering mentioned above and the logistics here are all difficult industries. No one has a moat. Even if there is one, you have to work very hard to maintain the moat, but if you make a little mistake or slack, the moat will be overtaken by your opponent. Munger once mentioned this phenomenon. He said he couldn't even figure out the reason for this; it would be fine if he didn't touch it.

JD Logistics had the largest loss ratio, -40% +. Fortunately, it won a new market, bought a bit on a dark market, and lost 1,2w of Hong Kong dollars, which is fine.

Ah, my position performance has not been very good since this year, because the basic idea is long-term holding. Of the US stock holdings, only Apple $Apple(AAPL.US)$ and AMD $Advanced Micro Devices(AMD.US)$ , up less than 10% since this year; PDD $PDD Holdings(PDD.US)$ and BILI $Bilibili(BILI.US)$ Because they are concerned about the policy uncertainty of China Securities and Securities, they have all been cleared before, and the clearance position should have been reduced since the beginning of the year. Weilai $NIO Inc(NIO.US)$ and TESLA $Tesla(TSLA.US)$ It's still negative since the beginning of the year. Plus Hong Kong stocks... Vomited blood