UPDATE September 2
Well September started just how I thought, I was early but caught up today as I sold my October shorts and went long quickly, I haven't sold my longs yet because momentum looked strong going into Friday - but we shall see - bear markets turn on bulls quickly.
That's why I recommend buying short positions today and not selling or going long - unless you trust your ability to spot reversals... my problem is I was on a 300%+ hot streak and got prideful and greedy ![]()
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but the market has a way of humbling you
Let's see how tomorrow may play out and what the market looks like going forward.
the long strong trend is BEARISH
$ProShares UltraPro Short QQQ ETF(SQQQ.US$ By mid September we should see low 270s, but heres the thing - the higher and faster we go before we fail then the farther down we go. for example if we run to 308 today and reverse by days end I see us dropping below 250 by October ![]()
(time is the hardest to predict). To be honest I kind of see that because it lines up with my predicted dollar spike and mid September silver/gold crash - but iam elastic and not married to one scenario only probabilities.
But the short trend is ![]()
$Invesco QQQ Trust(QQQ.US$ Bullish but not a bold bullish although it could be.
How about the rest of the market?
Well if you missed the oil dip that's ok we are still early
Short term BULLISH... Oil dips are a gift from the market gods.
GOLD/ SILVER
$Micro Silver Futures(MAY4)(SILmain.US$ Silver is going to get pushed down as the dollar rises, when it crashes that is the time to buy.
$E-micro Gold Futures(JUN4)(MGCmain.US$ When gold flash crashes as the dollar climbs hang on count to 3 then buy everything shiny.
STEEL $Cleveland-Cliffs(CLF.US$ $United States Steel(X.US$ $Nucor(NUE.US$ Will be punished as long as the dollar climbs, but the dollars pullback is steels gain!
And when dollar tops (around ~112) BUY STEEL
Q: Why buy Steel when the dollar tops?
A: Because a strong dollar hurts earnings, a pullback in the dollar will free the companies from bad trade value and then there are THESE ⬇️ little things we call earnings, and debt and other important jazz.
it's old but it still works: nothing has changed - forge on ![]()
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Oh and as a side note at work I recieved another round of suppliers price increase letters:
STEEL, OIL and oil products like PVC, FERTILIZER!!! (OMG fertilizer is outrageous iam trying to cut/negotiate it out of contracts), CEMENT!!! (another one that is outrageous, price is only $5 per yard more this go round and another 5 in 3 months and another 5 in January, but the problem are the strict quantity limits that are placed on it... asking for 300 yds a day and getting 30-100 using multiple suppliers for one job, *anyone else ever work in federal projects? any idea how much of a paperwork nightmare this is??? that's where your tax dollars go - shuffling paperwork back and forth)
$Energy Fuels(UUUU.US$ $Denison Mines(DNN.US$ $Uranium Energy(UEC.US$ $Cameco(CCJ.US$ $SPROTT PHYSICAL URANIUM TR(SRUUF.US$ Pick any uranium stock they move in sequence I'll show UEC priced in the middle.
This is the same as oil - buy the dips
well that was kind of long winded, I hope there is some useful information.
If not, here is a US Steel manufacturer (in fact THE US Steel company![]()
) for today
I would be pleasantly surprised if it hit 24 today but it should give it a good go, then again triangles and being wickedly oversold can do wonders, anyways iam in!
wait for a confirmed uptrend and breakout
For my degenerate gamblers: be quick and on your toes.
I like the 22s here personally
For my safer traders chose your level of risk. the lower down the lower the risk.
Remember it is a BEAR market, if you chose to go long, be quick and agile, the market can turn at any time.
some quick futures a little less than 4 hours until open. Looks like we may keep the indicators cool going towards open. The Factory Orders and Non Farm Payrolls get released an hour before open.
IF we go bearish after NFP release and start selling down - BEAR down because it's going to get ugly, and my accounts are going down big time, but thems the breaks kid.
The safer play is to watch the market rise and buy your short positions. ![]()
As always
Good Luck ![]()
There are some that can only see the storm, and others who see the perfect wave.
Dont be in a hurry to surf like iam. ride the waves safely ![]()
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warrior-sailormoon : Thank you iamiam
Alexwu5 :
mrbenje : Thanks iamiam really appreciate your analysis. When you say this:
“buying short positions today and not selling or going long”
Meaning, buying SQQQ puts, holding existing shares?
bwjx : short all other stocks except the oil and commodities?
iamiamOP mrbenje: buying puts, short selling, selling calls any hedge move.
iamiamOP bwjx: I'd short them all but oil for the next couple weeks
APRoyalOak : i don't get it. so CLMain, SLB and CLS can.buy
bwjx iamiamOP: Agree. it is really difficult for a retail investor to catch the minor dips. When the relief is done, that's when we usually buy and get trapped. So I would look at the mid to linger term trend.
LEng LEng : Can buy Baba today?
iamiamOP APRoyalOak: on any red day I would be a buyer
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