A BIG SEPTEMBER COMING
A little weekend update: This is going to be scattered and a little random, I apologize I cant spend the time to organize it. I started on Friday afternoon, so it is a scattering of thoughts and charts over the weekend.
With an outlook on the FUTURE
Well iam BEARISH 🐻, there are still good stocks🛢🗣🎺, and I think we may see a rotation into defensive- eventually. The meme and high volatility stocks that had been beaten down led this rally (along with shorts covering) now we may see a rotation into defensive and big tech (that doesn't mean they will go up). But iam going to go over just a handful of stocks (not all are bullish). The only real things iam truly bullish on are:
And I play the long game, because gold and silver are going down... for now![]()
But I will discuss those all last, because the dollar is going to crush gold and silver for a while.
The market is going to go down all this week, there will be no green days, there might be some days where the bulls fight off of oversold conditions but this is a bears week, get some short/hedge positions and hold tight.
Metals, gold steel etc. will fall coinciding with the dollars rise, and they will drop rapidly just as the dollar will rise rapidly. However about mid September the dollar will top around 112 my guess 112.26 followed by a rapid decline - this is a blow off top... When this happens - BUY the metals - they will go on a run counter to the market.
So to sum up be BEARISH until the dollar tops, then go LONG metals.
Watch OIL! iam buying oil and have been, its bottoming and will soon reverse and climb towards 150 ![]()
a strong dollar will crush Multinationals, big tech, metals, and commodities in general (minus oil 🗣🎺🛢).
When the dollar tops - BUY METALS🏗
no matter how crippled your account is, when the dollar tops - GO LONG METALS: GOLD SILVER STEEL COPPER ALUMINUM
$VIX Index Futures(MAY4)(VXmain.US$ $CBOE Volatility S&P 500 Index(.VIX.US$ $ProShares Ultra VIX Short-Term Futures ETF(UVXY.US$ The VIX is going to go up increasing on each dip, it will hit 80's but not until next year. This cycle it will get closer to 40 sometime in October or November.
I believe there will be another Christmas rally beginning in most likely November, my guess is political gridlock sparks another rally, whatever the reason there will be some sort of rally before the "real" bottom in Feb - April of 2023. Where the VIX may hit 80.
BABA $Alibaba(BABA.US$ iam gonna be a baba billionaire... haha I wish, but one step closer ![]()
work work work.
Do we get the breakout Monday? Baba had a good pullback, I believe for another run up. It fell just below a major support at 98.3 but went above after hours. Momentum is still positive, but just barely watch baba for the MACD and OBV to show divergences towards a positive run.
With the dollar climbing CLF will fall and the rise in the dollar to 112 is an extreme rise and should cause CLF to likewise drop to an extreme level.
Here is the option chain, these prices will not be this low at open. The dollar rise is going to crush CLF: buy puts - I like the 15 strike -
remember this fall is going to be rapid, because the dollar spike is going to be quick. So mid sept puts are golden!
When these get over $1 (1.00) start to sell slowly as the charts develop a bottom around 13 (a bottom is developed by drifting and rising sharply) sell more and start to buy Jan calls (if you have the capital) I prefer the 20 or 18 strike
OIL
$Schlumberger(SLB.US$ I think 36 then we breakout again.
I'm sure this post is all over the place, but I hope you get the sentiment, iam bearish on everything not OIL and the dollar. Oil STOCKS will probably get pulled down with the general markets but get ready to go long oil, it's going higher much higher and so are the stocks OIH 400!!! $VanEck Oil Services ETF(OIH.US$
Gold and Silver are going on historic runs - AFTER THEY BOTTOM BADLY IN THE NEXT FEW WEEKS.
if you want to see my conviction and some of my positions , this is my active IRA. On Friday I sold my BABA when the market opened (selling took longer than I wanted because I was being cheap and dumb and not just selling at market) and rotated into my SQQQ right around the time powell was ending his spoiler alert. (I had the VIX & VIXY positions going into Friday along with some of the SQQQ)
iam also sitting on a lot of cash on hand ![]()
to watch BABA and an oversold bounce to form at anytime, they are rapid sharp and can wreck your options (especially short dated ones like many of mine) they are also massive money making opportunities if you see them coming.
Now iam much too tired to continue to add and edit, as always.
Good Luck ![]()
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Engineer, Commodity Buyer, Alert Bettor,
Tesla 🌬 Commodities BULL🐘 Precious Metals Dragon 🐲 and OIL Trumpeter 🗣🎺
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warrior-sailormoon : Thank you iamiam
warrior-sailormoon : As for now I m holding only super Long call baba, baba shares , oil (shares and calls) n gold (shares and call) n TSLA ( I know I shouldn’t as for now but I just follow too much on my emotion on TSLA
bwjx : Thanks as always for the advice.
But what is the relation between metals and the USD index and why a fall in dollar will be good for metals?
icezzz : Is oxy still good buy? 73
iamiamOP bwjx: hang on...
With a strong dollar it becomes harder to buy metals I will use gold as an example. This is because it becomes more expensive in other currencies.
A falling dollar increases the value of other countries’ currencies. This increases the demand for commodities including gold. It also increases the prices.
When the U.S. dollar starts to lose its value, investors look for alternative investment sources to store value. Gold is an alternative.
So falling dollar rising metals/commodities.
did that explain it?
iamiamOP icezzz: a good buy, yes
but if oil stocks get thrown out with the markets 69 is a better buy.
bwjx iamiamOP: I see. Maybe I will keep some gold bars at home too.
BeBlessed : Bears are our friends now
jimmychoos : Getting back into baba?
Thelord : Iam why clf rocketed
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