Bull Session: How Long Before the Fed Brings Inflation Down to Its 2% Target?
Stocks and bonds are set to tumble again even though inflation may have peaked, as interest rate hikes reawaken a massive selloff in 2022, the latest Bloomberg MLIV Pulse survey shows.
The latest MLIV survey asked over 900 participants 'how long before the Fed brings inflation down to its 2% target'. ![]()
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Join our poll at the end of the article! We released the MLIV result in the comment sections. Compare your thought with the professionals~
What about the impact of inflation on companies' profit margins? MLIV respondents appear closer to the bearish sentiment on the debate of market direction.
This is a bear-market trap. Inflation is the big, bad boogie man. Even if there really is a sustained decrease in inflation, it could take a while before prices actually come down significantly.”
--- Victoria Greene, founding partner at G Squared Private Wealth, said in an interview.
--- Victoria Greene, founding partner at G Squared Private Wealth, said in an interview.
While the S&P 500's margins peaked a year ago, the trough may not come until the fourth quarter, according to Bloomberg Intelligence.
Consensus estimates for net-income margins have fallen about 0.5 bps for both the third and fourth quarters since the start of this earnings season, with communication services, health care, and consumer sectors among the weakest groups.
--- BI data show.
--- BI data show.
It's rare for the Fed to aggressively tighten policy without causing market volatility. Stocks aren't wildly cheap right now, but they're not as expensive as they were six months ago, especially growth companies.”
--- said John Cunnison, chief investment officer at Baker Boyer Bank.
--- said John Cunnison, chief investment officer at Baker Boyer Bank.
So mooers, what do you think? ![]()
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Source: Bloomberg
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陳天送 : We have to wait for the mainland to liberalize its epidemic policy and resolve internal contradictions.
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zuzilla : you know it's going to take a while before it comes back down.
TooTheMOON : Fundamentals count even more when macro forces are involved. Companies flush with profit and retained earnings are not affected by debt service costs. Cash is king!
Chatterbox MooOP : 84% of over 900 respondents think it would take two years or longer for the central bank to bring the US inflations down to the long-term target of 2%.
Chatterbox MooOP : Meanwhile, they think American consumption will continue to drop and unemployment rates will climb over 4%, but not higher than 6%.
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