Russia to tighten supply into Europe even further reported today
$ProShares Ultra Bloomberg Natural Gas(BOIL.US$ Not much doin today though.. pretty thin..alot of traders are on summer vacation with their families.
I apologize or not having responded earlier in the day, I hadn’t looked at the comments all day until just now. …….I know everybody wants to know where and how far this thing is going . Only the shadow knows…..but….Here’s my take.
And that is this,…Ultimately this thing is going WAY higher…….My planned long position is through January 4th and then it’s up fora fresh re-evaluation. Between now and then, there are so many fundamental events, factors and occurrences that are going to pressure this thing skyward, that any selling I do will be simply to day trade an overbought session to enter at a better price. I consider to that risk however to be at my own peril, as it’s only after a super overbought lightning fast run up like the one we had last week that I’ll try to pull that off. 65% of the time it’s seems to work incredibly well. 35% of the time I end up buying back my position at a higher price thanI sold it at. It’s completely situation dependent, and I don’t recommend it to anyone that can’t afford to sit on a swhat could be a significant drawdownThe market left a pretty good sized gap down to 99.1.
And that is this,…Ultimately this thing is going WAY higher…….My planned long position is through January 4th and then it’s up fora fresh re-evaluation. Between now and then, there are so many fundamental events, factors and occurrences that are going to pressure this thing skyward, that any selling I do will be simply to day trade an overbought session to enter at a better price. I consider to that risk however to be at my own peril, as it’s only after a super overbought lightning fast run up like the one we had last week that I’ll try to pull that off. 65% of the time it’s seems to work incredibly well. 35% of the time I end up buying back my position at a higher price thanI sold it at. It’s completely situation dependent, and I don’t recommend it to anyone that can’t afford to sit on a swhat could be a significant drawdownThe market left a pretty good sized gap down to 99.1.
I thought it was going to be a stretch to fill it but from 110 the market had to give back and breathe. But I didn’t expect it to fill it within 24 hours. But this market has a funny way of filling its gaps. And often in oddly timed ways. .so when it nose dived and filled that gap almost to the dime, which caught me completely off guard…..(I was getting a sandwich) the market had already filled the gap and was racing higher again. So Like I said, I’m all in again. My thesis hasn’t changed one ayota, and just today Russia threatened to tighten the noose around Europe with lower flows in the coming weeks.
Well nothing bearish there, And the Freeport LNG terminal which has taken 2 billion cubic feet of gas out of the flow to Europe, is getting one day closer to re opening with each day that passes. Currently scheduled to begin a resumption in October. That’s right around the corner. And year to date even with the additional gas we’ve not been able to send to Europe, U.S. inventories are flat to down compared to last year and the 5 year average, yet we’re going to ramp up to start shipping Europe almost 1 billion cubic feet per month more out of that terminal. That’s 17% of US LNG capacity.
So I can’t tell you what to do. I can just tell you what I see and what the charts seem to indicate. But by now, you know where I stand. I’ve sat through 15% drawdowns in this thing since the journey up from the low 30’s, firm in my resolve of my own confidence in my knowledge of the markets fundamentals, general pricing rhythms, and my charting. It a good thing I did , otherwise I’d have gotten chopped to pieces taking huge losses and would have been too intimidated to jump back in. This market will eat you alive or make you a ton of money depending on your temperament and the resolve you have in the convictions you hold, assuming they’re backed by empirical evidence. If they are, stick to your guns, the market will most likely eventually come around. Often times pretty quickly.
Like every other market, this one has a rhythm too. It’s justa far higher beta. If your gonna be in it you have to be able to know what you want out of it. And unless the fundamentals change, I don’t ever let let this market get the best of my emotions. I just wait it out. Like I said, for me, this is a timed trade based on events that are in fact already set in motion. They’re just not in the market yet. As this market is very hesitant to push higher after the Freeport incident. But when it runs, man does it run. That’s one of the things that adds a little bit more technical predictability to it, is everybody’s fear.Nobody wants to get caught by the shorthairs. Neither do I.
But if I were to look at every days price action, without any significant change in the MAJOR fundamentals, I’d drive myself nuts, way over trade it,….. and get whipsawed into into chum and be broke in a week.
So have a strategy for yourself. Do your own research. See what makes sense for you. Make a plan as to when to get in,….and when you are going to get out….and stick to it! …You may find some things out about yourself and your trading that never understood or saw before! That’s the real gold…..knowledge which can only come from experience 😉
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淡定的惠特莫爾 : But I still think this stock is very volatile up and down.
I made a little money that day! I dare not keep it for a long time. After I sold it, the dirt rose sharply, and after I bought it back, the coil merchant wash sell me.
The price goes up high, but the stock price continues to fall a lot? It's bad luck.
淡定的惠特莫爾 : [German government: the restoration of "Nord Stream-2" is not under discussion. According to CCTV news, due to the conflict between Russia and Ukraine and Western sanctions against Russia and other factors, European countries are currently caught in an energy dilemma. At present, Germany has been hit by the "sharp decline in natural gas supply and soaring energy prices". Recently, a number of German politicians have proposed to resume natural gas cooperation with Russia and launch the "Beixi-2" natural gas pipeline project. In response, German government deputy spokesman Wolfgang Buchner responded a few days ago that the resumption of the "Nord Stream-2" project is not currently under discussion. Transfer
淡定的惠特莫爾 : I didn't have time to watch the disc yesterday! Look at the decline in the market, and this stock is not bad, so it is not sold.
PhotoSynthOP 淡定的惠特莫爾: This stock has next to no correlation with the rest of the market, including to a large degree the oil market.. So comparing the two in your trading decisions in this stock can be a major mistake. As you can see for example, simply by the market pre-open this morning, this stock has several times, had some of its biggest outsized moves to the upside 10 -20% on days where the rest of the market has been down sharply . The difference between supply and demand is so dramatic that once the biggest “leak in our delivery system “ ( Freeport LNG Terminal) is repaired , That additional supply available for shipment to Europe is going to immediately get absorbed by them ( at pretty much any price we offer ), as their price for the commodity still floats (+/- ) 6-8 x higher than our spot price is over here. That spread needs to narrow considerably before upward pressure is taken off of our market,a s we can sell everything we can currently produce and ship. And we are on the cusp of shipping 17% more LNG with a ramp to start in early September which will help Europe not only to fill its reserves to 80-90% by mid to end of November, but will help them to not have to draw those reserves down so quickly as the winter goes on.
Currently Europe could pay pay double the US spot price, and stil be saving by more than half the price they are paying now.
淡定的惠特莫爾 PhotoSynthOP: Sorry to bother you! Thanks to
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淡定的惠特莫爾 淡定的惠特莫爾: Your research is clear and learned! It's amazing! thanked
淡定的惠特莫爾 : [Analyst: Natural gas futures prices will continue to rise in the short term or consolidation] According to the latest data on the natural gas futures market from CME (CME), there was only a slight increase of 84 open positions last Friday, returning to an upward trend after declining the previous day. However, the number of transaction contracts fell by about 77,700, offsetting the previous increase. The price of natural gas has risen markedly with a slight increase in open positions and a sharp drop in trading volume, which means that there may be consolidation in the short term. The long-term target remains $9.75/million GBP.
PhotoSynthOP 淡定的惠特莫爾: I cannot speak for anyone else, but because no one knows exactly whether the m is in a period of great rise or retracement at any given time, when someone commits to a price for a long position in this market, they need to willing to sit on it and wait. The impulsiveness to try to jump in and jump out of this market will cut you to ribbons in no time flat. As you could could get in on a fundamentally strong day, and something as simple as a few nice summer days of weather can allow pricing to temporarily ease, sometimes significantly, for a few days or more until it gets another piece of fundamental news. But when it does, it skyrockets north. But it’d your not already in it, chase it at your own peril. This is definitely NOT a market to be chased. If your beliefs correlate at all with mine, always wait until the next big pullback when things look like the sky is falling before taking your long position. That way, if the market continues to fade a bit your not getting demolished, your just not feeling that rush of the impulse “ buy and win” mentality that everyone has become so addicted to. But when it runs,…. It runs big and it runs hard Thats where the money is made in this thing. Trying to scalp this market is likely to cost you your own unless you have access to some incredible swing trading algorithms.
I am far more likely to be in and out of Nvidia, or a multitude of other stocks in a day or two’s time. That’s simply playing craps in this market, and the house has the odds by a mile.
My view, concurrently however, is that over the long haul,,…for the time being anyway,….the house doesn’t stand a chance if I get in and sit on it through December.
淡定的惠特莫爾 PhotoSynthOP: Your profile is too apt! Hard work for you!
淡定的惠特莫爾 : The price of wholesale gas delivered by the Netherlands in the fourth quarter rose 13.3% to €288.75 per megawatt-hour.
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