Howard Marks Memo - I Beg to Differ.

Background：
A large number of chief investment officers consider the stocks of these companies, which are generally favored by the market, to be very safe. For example, a common saying at the time was, "You can't lose money buying IBM stock." Still, followers of these stocks lost almost all their money in stocks of great companies that "everyone knows about."

What it Matters: We must dare to think differently
In 1978, Howard Marks made a tidy sum investing in securities that most trustees considered "uninvestable" and that no one knew or cared about. In short, you can't expect to achieve superior performance by taking the same actions as everyone else.

Just as in the workplace, if you and your boss are stuck in a rut, the results you get, good or bad, are average. Extraordinary performance can only be achieved by taking unconventional actions. Above average performance is possible only by making exceptional judgments.

The same is true for investors. It's simple: if you want to stand out in terms of performance, you have to be different. However, by going the other way, a positive difference can only be achieved if the strategies and tactics you choose are right and you are better at executing them.

Remember：
Your investment goal is not to earn average returns, but to earn exceptional returns. Therefore, you must think better than others, that is, think more carefully. Other investors may be smart, well-informed and number-crunching, so you have to find a unique advantage. You have to think what they don't think, see what they don't see, or have insight that they don't have. You must react and act differently. In short, being right may be a necessary but not sufficient condition for investment success. Your way of thinking has to be deeper than anyone else's.

For example, you should consider: 1. What are the range of posible future outcomes. 2. How different are my expections from the market consensus? ,etc.