Elon to sell $9.2b worth of Tesla or none at all depends on the Twitter deal outcome and the purchase price
Sharing an interesting tweet that was posted in $Tesla(TSLA.US$ side but didn't tag $Twitter (Delisted)(TWTR.US$ side.
The excel basically calculated that if Elon had to buy Twitter at $54.20, he had to sell $9.2b worth of Tesla shares. If they settle to buy Twitter at $45 then Elon had to sell $2.8b worth of Tesla share. Basically for every $1 drop in the Twitter take over price per share, Elon will need to sell $0.7b lesser in Tesla shares.
Base on this math, if the deal is set at $41 per share, Elon don't need to sell any addition Tesla shares. So whether a big sell order is coming on Oct or not depends quite heavily on the Twitter case, just something to keep in mind and watch out for ![]()
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Gary Black is the Managing Partner of The Future Fund LLC, and a SEC registered investment adviser.
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TeslaSmurf : IF he pays 54,20$
IF he doesn’t want to share Twitter’s ownership with more partners.
IF a judge compells him to execute the deal (quite impossible, as he is a person and can be sentenced to but not forced)
IF the judge does not decide that he is in his right (as written in the contract) to step back with a 1billion penalty.
I saw that excel on Gary Black’s Twitter last week too.
IF…
Possibilities against Elon are way less than 50%
So curious at this point…
doctorpot1OP TeslaSmurf: yup IF, that's written all over my post too hahahhaa IF. No one knows what will happen but if the 54.20 happens, a 9.2b sell order may be coming.
if it is your 42 price you mentioned,there is still a 700m sell order that may be coming.
All these should be taken into consideration, just like when you believe Elon will sell all his share of Twitter if the case is in his favor, there is another side of the coin which is Elon may have to sell his share if The case is in Twitter favour.
Just opening up everyone eyes to all possible scenarios so as not to be trapped in an echo chamber or having selection bias. Those are dangerous.
高進 GoG : Does he still have the option of 1 billion dollars breakup fee instead?
doctorpot1OP 高進 GoG: it all depends on the judge, but some legal expert did mentioned that the 1b breakup fre doesn't apply in this case of buyer's remorse. All will be clear on 21 Oct, unless Elon and Twitter decided to settle out of court before that.
TeslaSmurf doctorpot1OP: I don’t see a settlement before the trial: they have gone too far, with Elon also presenting a FRAUD claim. Plus, they couldn’t agree on a lower price without the shareholder’s approval. The TWTR stock will have to crash under the 30$ in order to compell the shareholders to accept a 42$ new offer: that’s a number Elon likes and it is about the max he can pay without selling more TSLA stocks or giving more as collateral guarantee which pisses the Tesla investors and scares the traders, though being the Twitter acquisition a really strategic point in Elon’s strategy. Twitter will be a DEFENSE weapon against the FUD, but mostly a new network for payements, investing, robotaxi reservation, Tesla purchase, Doge marketplace, social app. and much more.
It was not him, but his financing partners to pull back in this market, so he had to resist, and Twitter gave him the perfect excuse with the BOT thing: they are EVIDENTLY well ove 10%.
TWTR is doomed on the short-mid time. Then it will recover.
That’s why Elon was not afraid to pay all that money: he will 4X his investment in a few years. Mark my words.
doctorpot1OP TeslaSmurf: If there is a settlement, it is Elon who is trying to settle not the other way around. I doubt Twitter will allow an out of court settlement too at a lower price. They will get sued by shareholders.
The previous time you said you are exiting at 42 or doubling down at 42. now it is 43 so did you exit or double down?
yea marking your words