UPDATE July 22
We are entering an odd point in the markets, this is a bear rally - and I now think a good one. The decline in the dollar is letting the markets recover, this looks to continue. The VIX looks to slowly pulldown to 22. But not all stocks are treated as equal. Oil looks oversold but can stay at these ranges for a while as the 50MA and shorter Moving Averages (9, 13MA) continue to close the gap between them, OR it can rally to close the gap (oil stocks look to be going into a rally, and a triangle is forming leading me to believe oil the commodity is heading for a rally).
Tech companies have had their earnings estimates lowered so far they may report decent earnings but offer poor guidance. Tech has also been oversold far too long and they need to bounce, with the red aftermarket and premarket because of SNAPs poor earnings this will be a small pullback because they are too oversold but had a good rally so a pullback is common.
iam STILL BEARISH this is a bear rally, and QQQ 320 is very possible, I called for a face ripper last week and I thought the big rally up to 306 was it, but I think it was just the start of a better rally. The sentiment will change and the bulls will come out, this is when you know to switch back to bearish - QQQ 250 is my target, and mid September is a major catalyst point (remember time is the hardest to predict)
BABA is getting close to reversing as well, the bottoms are getting higher and so are the highs we entered the 106 range so any dips below 104 are entry points for me.
$E-mini NASDAQ 100 Futures(JUN4)(NQmain.US$
Tech companies have had their earnings estimates lowered so far they may report decent earnings but offer poor guidance. Tech has also been oversold far too long and they need to bounce, with the red aftermarket and premarket because of SNAPs poor earnings this will be a small pullback because they are too oversold but had a good rally so a pullback is common.
iam STILL BEARISH this is a bear rally, and QQQ 320 is very possible, I called for a face ripper last week and I thought the big rally up to 306 was it, but I think it was just the start of a better rally. The sentiment will change and the bulls will come out, this is when you know to switch back to bearish - QQQ 250 is my target, and mid September is a major catalyst point (remember time is the hardest to predict)
BABA is getting close to reversing as well, the bottoms are getting higher and so are the highs we entered the 106 range so any dips below 104 are entry points for me.
$E-mini NASDAQ 100 Futures(JUN4)(NQmain.US$
$USD(USDindex.FX$ A dollar pullback is bullish for the metals and multinationals (especially the large ones like Apple, Google etc.) leading to more upside for the markets.
$Alibaba(BABA.US$ Just a little more consolidation before breaking out? It's getting close to reversing up.
$VIX Index Futures(MAY4)(VXmain.US$ VIX looks to keep pulling back
On a zoomed out view this looks like a triangle leading to a breakdown, this is temporary... This is a bear market oversold rally and the VIX will drop until it's oversold.
The bear has been tranquilized while the MM's let the markets recover from being very oversold. - When the tranquilizer wears off the droggy bear is going to roar that he's awake * this should be around 22.
On a zoomed out view this looks like a triangle leading to a breakdown, this is temporary... This is a bear market oversold rally and the VIX will drop until it's oversold.
The bear has been tranquilized while the MM's let the markets recover from being very oversold. - When the tranquilizer wears off the droggy bear is going to roar that he's awake * this should be around 22.
$E-mini NASDAQ 100 Futures(JUN4)(NQmain.US$ Futures, the 1 hr looks like a bullish divergence is forming, but 2 hr is bearish but leveling off the 4 hr is also bearish, by open we might be close to positive at least trending that way. Will we sell down or rally
Off to work, as always
Good Luck![]()
Good Luck
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iamiamOP : this is a pullback
Thelord iamiamOP: Did you add to your shorts
iamiamOP Thelord: no I unloaded most of them, this is a pullback to run higher, it went from 306 to 300 I hope it goes to 299.9 for an almost perfect retraction for a move up... it could fail, that's why I'm not super mad about about holding some shorts, but I hope to unload them monday... I was thinking about posting what I moved today, but I dont know how interested anyone is in that?
Thelord iamiamOP: I see. Thought you mentioned you are comfy shorting at 303. So fast closed positions
iamiamOP Thelord: yeah todays movement told me go long.
Thelord iamiamOP: I see it turning down at a major resistance area, can’t tell if it will go back to break it or continue down next week. Mind sharing what you saw that made you change sentiment?
iamiamOP Thelord: I will talk specific QQQ/NQ I will refer to it as Q.
(I'm going to buy that every time). QCOM had a pullback I think it has 160 in it. BABA is so close to turning bullish again (I pulled my hedges) and the 20 yr should drop to 2.5% raising TLT
Because not all stocks are equal i bought gold silver CLF oil QCOM BABA TQQQ TLT
QQQ ran to 306 then pulled back to 300 the previous fib line. The DMI did not drop meaning money wasnt leaving, shorts were selling. My weekly charts were getting stronger. Dont get me wrong I think this is a big quick rally no longer than a week, with everybody getting bearish, that makes me think this pops big for a few days wrecks all the shorts then drops. Sentiment is really bearish, iam just being counter intuitive and following the weekly and DMI,
gold silver and oil were all just oversold much too far. CLF reported earnings of 6B!!! and sold off
Thelord iamiamOP: I see. Thanks for sharing