Account Info
Log Out
English
Back
Log in to access Online Inquiry
Back to the Top

Bull case vs Bear case

I wanted to create a list of all the current Bull vs Bear conditions in the current market, and figured I would post it here so people could add in suggestions:

Bull Case
A good amount of damage has been done in markets this year, bringing things down to fair/under valued (based on TTM and Forward EPS estimates).
Commodities look to have peaked, along with interest rate expectations, thereby signaling peak inflation (which is what started this whole thing).
The job market is still strong, unemployment is low and there's still something like 1.9 open jobs for every person.
The consumer is still strong and spending a lot of money. Their balance sheet is also healthy.
No recession this year. A slowdown in growth appears certain, but not a recession. Given the recent decline, the market has more or less priced in the current situation.

Bear Case
While there has been a good amount of damage done, markets are only "fairly valued" on forward EPS estimates that have not been revised down.
Commodities are still higher than pre-covid levels by a significant amount. Peak inflation doesn't mean we instantly go back to 2%. Inflation is sticky, and higher than 2% will have the Fed continue to raise rates. Inflation may slow to 4 or 5% which is still way too high. If they raise and pause rates like the 1970's bear market, it will be a volatile mess.
Jobs are a lagging indicator, and things can change quickly.
A strong consumer contributes to inflation, forcing the Fed to continue rate hikes until inflation is below 3% at the very least.
Until we know what earnings look like, we can't estimate how deep the growth decline will be. It's safer to wait until earnings + forward guidance at the very least.
Disclaimer: Community is offered by Moomoo Technologies Inc. and is for educational purposes only. Read more
2
+0
1
Translate
Report
98K Views
Comment
Sign in to post a comment
276Followers
5Following
888Visitors
Follow
More from Singh Rahul