Did we already bottom?
Most people agree that we can't spot the top or the bottom but it seems like we may have already seen the bottom. Retailers and other companies like chip makers are talking about an inventory glut. Energy and commodities are going back down. Gas prices are unlikely to go higher unless Russia has a major escalation.
It seems like that all adds up to having already seen peak inflation, which means the Fed can moderate, and the economy can continue to grow, i.e. there may be a soft landing.
$Apple(AAPL.US$ $Amazon(AMZN.US$ $Meta Platforms(META.US$ $Bitcoin(BTC.CC$ $S&P 500 Index(.SPX.US$ $Invesco QQQ Trust(QQQ.US$ $Nasdaq Composite Index(.IXIC.US$
It seems like that all adds up to having already seen peak inflation, which means the Fed can moderate, and the economy can continue to grow, i.e. there may be a soft landing.
$Apple(AAPL.US$ $Amazon(AMZN.US$ $Meta Platforms(META.US$ $Bitcoin(BTC.CC$ $S&P 500 Index(.SPX.US$ $Invesco QQQ Trust(QQQ.US$ $Nasdaq Composite Index(.IXIC.US$
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allen kidd : mark zuckerberg might be laying employees off soon
https://finance.yahoo.com/news/mark-zuckerberg
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I personally think the bottom isn't in sight yet.
when it hits bottom I'll buy some shares.
Violets : I don't think we have hit the bottom. I mean the country is not doing well and that's just a fact. economic conditions will need to improve and and then maybe the volatility will slow. however I do think we will see quite a few rallies before September
bwjx : Gas prices have started to cool off but it takes time for the economy to recover. May not see any meaningful bounce till that happens.
70805710 : Maybe it’s too early to say before 2nd quarter earnings
Sg-Jin : Infinite QE then yeah it’s the bottom
下一个十年的雷熊 : It's too early to tell if it's a bottom. The Fed has put so much water into the stock market and inflation that S & P has just turned around at the gate of the bear market.
It is doubtful that last year's high peak fell by 20%, even if it was low.
Whether inflation will peak or not, it will hurt the economy even more if it stays high. You know, before the outbreak of Russia and Ukraine, inflation in the United States or around the world was soaring, and Russia and Ukraine only intensified.
GolikovViktor : Russia is ded defolt
Stock_Pup : I don’t think we have seen the bottom yet. Important dates coming up on 27/28 of July.
1994CM : We actually need to be stronger with our entire family in this current turbulent times. There would be more layoffs of employees/& paycuts for employees by some of these Multinational Corporations sooner or later.
If money could talk : Many signs, in my opinion, leans toward no, we havent. Inflation is still at 8.6, and there is talk of the July 28th numbers possibly ticking upwards a bit. Yes, indeed oil prices have seemingly peeked, for now, but in the US this could be contributable to political factors.
Remember, mid term elections are not far off and neither candidate from either party wants to hit the campaign trail to be bombarded with high gas prices as the topic of conversation. Alongside the economy questions they are already prepared to answer.
Also, the Fed and the tightening of the economy, they are working diligently to reign in inflation. Also great for the comming candidates on the campaign trail seeking reelection.
I recently heard a number from one of the huge money managers. 14% is the interest rate at which we could end inflation in its tracks. Possibly stabilize the economy for multiple years, instead a soft landing where passengers disembark to a cycle of inflation, recession, rinse and repeat every few years.
During the 1970's recession, interest rates were pushed up to almost 20 %. Now yes, the housing, auto mkt and unemployment rate 7.7%, sounds crazy. But 2009 Unemployment peaked at 10% and FED funds rate peaked just below 5.5%.
Recession.. FED interest rates and unemployment along with other factors of course, but..
In summary, thank you for reading, but I don't think you can be out of a recession with low unemployment, and high inflation combined with FED funds rates hovering around 2%. But, I am no analyst, not an economist nor money manager. I enjoy history, and the lessons it lays out for us. Hope you enjoyed this little historical blurb answering the question, Did we already bottom.