What to expect in the week ahead (JEF, NKE, GIS, MU)

Market participants continued to assess whether stocks have found a bottom, or are briefly rebounding from oversold conditions. Stocks could continue to get a lift in the near term this week, as investors rebalance their holdings for the quarter-end.

The economic-data calendar will be busy. On Monday, the Census Bureau will release the durable goods report for May, which will give insight into business investment and consumer spending. On Tuesday, the Conference Board will release its Consumer Confidence Index for June. Inflation remains top of mind for consumers.

Thursday will bring the Bureau of Economic Analysis’s personal income and spending data for May. That release includes the personal consumption expenditures index, which is the Federal Reserve’s preferred inflation gauge. Wall Street and Main Street alike are hoping for signs that inflation is decelerating.

Finally, the Institute for Supply Management will release its Manufacturing Purchasing Managers’ Index for June on Friday. It is forecast to decline slightly from May’s reading, but remain solidly in expansion territory.

The Census Bureau releases the durable goods report for May. Economists forecast that new orders for manufactured durable goods increased 0.2% month over month to $265.8 billion.

The National Association of Realtors releases its Pending Home Sales Index for May. Consensus estimate is for a 99.3 reading, roughly even with April. “The latest contract signings mark six consecutive months of declines and are at the slowest pace in nearly a decade,” according to the NAR's chief economist, Lawrence Yun.

S&P Dow Jones Indices releases its CoreLogic Case-Shiller National Home Price Index for April. Home prices are expected to rise 21% year over year, which would surpass March's record increase of 20.6%. Home-price appreciation has most likely peaked as the index reports data with a three-month lag. Nearly all forward-looking indicators suggest that the housing market is cooling significantly.

The Conference Board releases its Consumer Confidence Index for June. Economists forecast a 101 reading, about five points less than May's 106.4. The index is off sharply in the past six months as inflation remains top of mind for consumers.

The Bureau of Economic Analysis reports personal income and spending data for May along with the Federal Reserve's favorite inflation gauge, the core PCE, or personal consumption expenditures, index. Personal income is expected to increase 0.5% month over month, while spending is seen rising 0.2%. This compares with gains of 0.4% and 0.9%, respectively, in April. Consensus estimate is for the core PCE index—which excludes volatile food and energy prices—to jump 4.9% year over year, matching the April data. Both Wall Street and Main Street are hoping for signs that inflation is decelerating.

The Census Bureau reports construction spending statistics for May. Expectations are for a 0.3% increase in construction spending to a seasonally adjusted annual rate of $1.75 trillion.

The Institute for Supply Management releases its Manufacturing Purchasing Managers' Index for June. Forecasts call for a 55 reading, slightly less than May's 56.1.