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SpyderCall joined discussion · Jun 20, 2022 18:22

Short Term And Long Term Outlook For Ticker Symbol 9988

Im using ticker 9988 in the stead of BABA because US markets were closed and this is the most recent data. Alibaba's charts look a lot like the Hang Seng Index as it is a semi-heavy weigh allocation in the fund. So you could possibly trade them very similar.
$BABA-SW(09988.HK)$
For the record I am still bullish on a lot of Chinese equities for many reasons. But the long term picture has not looked good for almost two years now. With Inflation, to the Russian war, to Quantitative Tightening taking place all over the world. All this is leading to a destruction of demand which makes many believe a recession is looming. When will there be a silver lining for Alibaba and the markets in general around the world?
In my opinion we need inflation to go down. So we need wages to stop increasing and higher unemployment numbers. We need oil prices to drop as that is a big driver of inflation. We need the Fed to stop tightening. We need less GDP growth. I know this sounds ridiculous but this will actually be a good thing even though all of these will lead to a recession. Then why is this good you ask? Because one of the Feds only job is to manage inflation. When all of this bad data is coming in the markets will tank. then inflation will slow. And then J. Powell will flip flop on us and bring in that soft landing and not increase interest rates at that meeting or even drop interest rates in an ideal situation. But I am no expert so lets just look at the technical picture for Alibaba for now.
Short Term And Long Term Outlook For Ticker Symbol 9988
Above you can see the long term down trend. We don't fight the trend. We short the rips until it stops working. Or you can day trade the swings up and down but I would not recommend that without practice. Once the downtrend is broken then it will be less profitable looking for shorts all the time theoretically. I have highlighted a consolidation patter near historic lows on BABA. These consolidation patters can regularly happen near reversals or local tops and bottoms. This one may be different because there was a major capitulation moment which started this pattern. But it is interesting to note that major capitulation and consolidation patterns do happen near local bottoms often.
Short Term And Long Term Outlook For Ticker Symbol 9988
On the chart directly above I just wanted to show you how to spot an accelerating downtrend when it is happening. You can see how the long term price channel initially gets broken to the downside then the price channel begins to slope downward more and more before a melt down.
Below you can see a few technical levels to watch during this downtrend. It is promising to see the higher lows after the meltdown. But it is still early and we have not quite made new local highs from the highs formed initially after the melt down. So the capitulation moments you see during the bottom of a recession may not have happened yet. Also we still need to keep a close eye on those long term resistance levels that BABA's price reacts to. The mid level resistance of the range is just as important as the upper resistance is some cases like this case for BABA during the downtrend. You can look back and see the rejections, bounces, and gaps up and down near mid level resistance.
Until BABA can break above the upper level resistance of this long term downtrend then we are technically still in a downtrend. But when this moment happens there will be a ton of buyers stepping in. It should be a big momentum event for options traders. I might consider opening a strangle options spread when we reach that level so I can make money either way it goes on the expected big move. I could be wrong.
Short Term And Long Term Outlook For Ticker Symbol 9988
I don't recommend short term swing trading or day trading without a lot of practice and willpower but short term trading is my bread and butter. Here are the very short term technicals to watch for. And it does not show below but remember from the chart above the mid level resistance is resting right above the current price. I am watching for a rejection of mid level resistance mentioned in the above chart. I am also watching for a break to the upside of the very short term resistance highlighted by the light blue line that is above the current price. If we break above this tend line with a lot of momentum and volume then it migh coincide with a break above the mid level resistance of the long term downtrend which would be bullish for these short term 4 hour candles.
Remember the long term trend is down and these 4 hour candles are just for very short term day trading or swing trading. Very short term trends are for short term trading and will not influence the overall longer term trend. But on occasion you can find a good entry into a daily or weekly swing trade by taking a closer look on a shorter timeframe.
Short Term And Long Term Outlook For Ticker Symbol 9988
Basically we are still in a downtrend. But this is appearing to be a bottom because of all of the positive news sentiment in China as the government has vowed to stabilize markets effected by zero covid policy through fiscal and monetary policy. Also the locked down cities have been reopened further adding to the bullish sentiment. This is probably the reason for the outperformance of Chinese markets as compared to other stock markets recently. But the broader macro economic environment is still unaccommodating to stocks in general. So most are still bearish. But that could change at any moment.

$KraneShares CSI China Internet ETF(KWEB.US)$ $iShares China Large-Cap ETF(FXI.US)$ $XPeng(XPEV.US)$ $Fangdd Network(DUO.US)$ $XPENG-W(09868.HK)$ $NIO Inc(NIO.US)$ $NIO-SW(09866.HK)$ $Baidu(BIDU.US)$ $MEITUAN-W(03690.HK)$ $Meituan ADR(MPNGY.US)$ $JD.com(JD.US)$ $JD-SW(09618.HK)$ $BYD Company Limited(002594.SZ)$ $BYD COMPANY(01211.HK)$ $Hang Seng TECH Index(800700.HK)$ $Hang Seng Index(800000.HK)$ $SSE Composite Index(000001.SH)$ $CSI 300 Index(000300.SH)$ $TENCENT(00700.HK)$ $Bilibili(BILI.US)$ $BILIBILI-W(09626.HK)$ $LI AUTO-W(02015.HK)$ $Li Auto(LI.US)$ $JinkoSolar(JKS.US)$ $Jinko Solar(688223.SH)$
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SpyderCall
Trade the trends via technical, fundamental, and macro analysis. Day Trades, swing trades, and long-term investments.
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