Update June 14
It's been a busy week, no week ahead outlook, I had two made but couldn't finish either (busy making a straw bale garden) and ran out of time (I had to leave for work at 3am and didn't get home until almost 7). A lot has happened, the market fell hard (somehow I still expect a rally![]()
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) Don't get me wrong iam NOT bullish, I just expect a bear rally*
*A bear rally, no matter what starts it (chicken or the egg- doesn't matter there is a chicken that lays eggs) is money traders and shorts covering chasing the same stocks.
Now for something different, a look at tickers you may or may not follow but have huge ramifications.
First Currencies $USD(USDindex.FX$ the "Almighty" dollar - a high dollar is bad for multinational businesses and the dollar in general. With a strong dollar every other nation has to convert more of their currency for less US dollars - again passing along our inflation- Eventually they will tire of this and find a better more stable currency (bye bye dollar as the world reserve currency, a day of reckoning approaches) https://www.google.com/url?sa=t&source=web&rct=j&url=https://www.silkroadbriefing.com/news/2022/05/05/brazils-da-silva-proposes-a-latin-american-currency-to-be-free-of-the-us-dollar/&ved=2ahUKEwiY2M6vyqz4AhWrm44IHbzWDSsQFnoECAkQAQ&usg=AOvVaw3a-Qa25WGlUsBwpfeSivhj
*A bear rally, no matter what starts it (chicken or the egg- doesn't matter there is a chicken that lays eggs) is money traders and shorts covering chasing the same stocks.
Now for something different, a look at tickers you may or may not follow but have huge ramifications.
First Currencies $USD(USDindex.FX$ the "Almighty" dollar - a high dollar is bad for multinational businesses and the dollar in general. With a strong dollar every other nation has to convert more of their currency for less US dollars - again passing along our inflation- Eventually they will tire of this and find a better more stable currency (bye bye dollar as the world reserve currency, a day of reckoning approaches) https://www.google.com/url?sa=t&source=web&rct=j&url=https://www.silkroadbriefing.com/news/2022/05/05/brazils-da-silva-proposes-a-latin-american-currency-to-be-free-of-the-us-dollar/&ved=2ahUKEwiY2M6vyqz4AhWrm44IHbzWDSsQFnoECAkQAQ&usg=AOvVaw3a-Qa25WGlUsBwpfeSivhj
The Euro $Euro(EURindex.FX$ $Euro Futures(JUN4)(6Emain.US$ Oh the European Union, and I thought the FED was terrible, The ECB (Euopean Central Bank) control the finances of 26 nations 17 of which face recognized double digit inflation, so how does the ECB propose to solve this? Easy - THEY DON'T, the ECB will not be raising rates as inflation runs out of control. The dollar is crushing the euro and the collapse of the next currency isn't helping either.
The hapless Yen. $Japanese Yen Futures(JUN4)(6Jmain.US$ $ProShares UltraShort Yen(YCS.US$ The Yen is a study in complete yield curve control... The Japanese government has a cap on the 10 year treasury of .25% that means whenever their bond approaches .25 they print enough Yen to drop the price, well the Japanese 10 year wants to FLY past .25 because inflation is killing that return so the Japanese government has been printing Yen like mad to keep the 10 yr down, deflating their economy (crushing their currency, killing business, destroying finance- they are trying everything to get the people to spend all this new money but the people are rejecting the new prices- this is how an economy collapses)
The Roman Empire, Egyptian Empire, Ottoman Empire, Greek Empire, Dutch Empire, and until the 50s the Brittish Empire - All no longer exist because they eventually devalued their currency enough and a new empire replaced the old (by accruing debt for expansion eventually you can't pay the debt and you crumble*)
*The US alone has printed 600 years worth of world currency in the last 10 years!!!!!!!!!! End the FED!![]()
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The Roman Empire, Egyptian Empire, Ottoman Empire, Greek Empire, Dutch Empire, and until the 50s the Brittish Empire - All no longer exist because they eventually devalued their currency enough and a new empire replaced the old (by accruing debt for expansion eventually you can't pay the debt and you crumble*)
*The US alone has printed 600 years worth of world currency in the last 10 years!!!!!!!!!! End the FED!
Treasury Yields: $U.S. 2-Year Treasury Notes Yield(US2Y.BD$ $U.S. 10-Year Treasury Notes Yield(US10Y.BD$ The 2yr and the 10yr inverted again (this is bad because it signals a recession, hahaha as if you need more signals- let's just try to do this without a collapse huh) this is because the market is telling you they will pay a higher rate for closer dated treasuries because of inflation.
The mandate of the FED is price stability - does that look stable to you?!?
Both have run extremely fast, this tells me a pullback is coming.
The mandate of the FED is price stability - does that look stable to you?!?
Both have run extremely fast, this tells me a pullback is coming.
Bitcoin: $Bitcoin(BTC.CC$ This is deleveraging (all deleveraging is, is selling one asset to keep others) in this case funds are dumping bitcoin
Junk Bonds: $Ishares Iboxx $ High Yield Corporate Bond Etf(HYG.US$ $SPDR Bloomberg Barclays Short Term High Yield Bond ETF(SJNK.US$ They are called "junk" bonds because they are risky corporations who pay a higher interest return to obtain investment capital.
They need money and will pay higher interest than the government bonds. When junk bonds turn down businesses lose funding and go bye bye.
They need money and will pay higher interest than the government bonds. When junk bonds turn down businesses lose funding and go bye bye.
$Crude Oil Futures(JUN4)(CLmain.US$ Now let's see what all this did to OIL- because as the stocks sold down hard (YOU WEREN'T SUPPOSED TO COME FOR THE GENERALS YET!!!) OIL went UP
I actually opened a short position in oil at 120.6 yesterday. $Direxion Daily S&P Oil & Gas Exp. & Prod. Bear 2X Shares(DRIP.US$
I actually opened a short position in oil at 120.6 yesterday. $Direxion Daily S&P Oil & Gas Exp. & Prod. Bear 2X Shares(DRIP.US$
Gold/Silver sold down $E-micro Gold Futures(JUN4)(MGCmain.US$ $Micro Silver Futures(JUL4)(SILmain.US$ $SPDR Gold ETF(GLD.US$ $iShares Silver Trust(SLV.US$ iam was not confused by the selloff in gold and silver. They got a boost from the inflation scare but are now back to being sold off. I still have a Sept breakout.
VIX : Fear - Fear went bonkers - why? the market now knows the FED is hopelessly lost (remember the market at its core is made up of people who get these tools appointed so they generally believe them) $VIX Index Futures(MAY4)(VXmain.US$ $CBOE Volatility S&P 500 Index(.VIX.US$ $ProShares Ultra VIX Short-Term Futures ETF(UVXY.US$ Fear exploded, but I expect a pullback. This could just be in after hours futures and could be met with another rip at open, however iam temporary bearish on VIX (I don't believe this is the selloff, but it could be)
Nasdaq: $E-mini NASDAQ 100 Futures(JUN4)(NQmain.US$ Sold off heavy, I expect a rally but we will see, I'm not sold on it yet I'm more 50/50 eventhough I bet on it.
Well that was a lot be careful out there. Down the mountain I go.
Good Luck![]()
Good Luck
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Engineer, Commodity Buyer, Alert Bettor,
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交易机器不需要魔法 : Nice analysis on major currencies! How u think about Chinese Yuan? Their central bank are doing what opposite to FED do right now
102278988 : Noob here. Just wanna say I enjoy reading your posts. Keep it coming iamiam. Really appreciate it.
Jason Jason8 : Do you think UVXY will rush upward
iamiamOP 交易机器不需要魔法: that was one of my posts I didn't finish...
China is going about a recession in the opposite direction (the direction the us went in 2008) they are making money cheap and easy (also why chinese stocks went up). China will inflate their currency until it blows up and they either do or do not bail out their financial institutions that will determine their direction.
In reality the chinese were/are trying to wreck the economy enough so that when it collapses it doesnt fall very far they were/are trying to keep the wreckage to just the stock market and not real estate, banking and commodities. They are failing so far.
The scary thing is there is something that will solve most of their problems and I think they know it.
War- war forces commodity suppliers to ramp up production/hiring it allows the government to spend into debt and therefore bail out whatever needs bailed out all under the vail of a "unified" "right" or "greater good" while hiding their failings at the same time.
Sorry I'm sure that's not what you were after.
iamiamOP Jason Jason8: I think it ran too hot and should get a little pullback, but it could just have cooled off to run higher again
Thelord : So did you tripled down again yesterday?
iamiamOP Thelord: yes I did, I'm planning to let it run the rest of this week but if we are met with another big selloff after a little rally today I may bailout
TinkerB3ll iamiamOP: So you think China stocks/etf still bearish? Any recommendation. I was assuming they have rock bottom since the lockdown
iamiamOP TinkerB3ll: china is going to make money easy, so theoretically stocks should go up, how long the easy policy takes to take effect is the question, it may be met with resistance - unwillingness to borrow
Thelord iamiamOP: Today seems directionless
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