Supply and Demand Analysis of Midstream Photovoltaic Industry: Photovoltaic glass overcapacity in 2022, Soda Ash is Expected to Hit The Best of Times

Photovoltaic glass has entered a new round of capacity expansion. In 2018, the policy of photovoltaic rolled glass was tightened, and the new products on the supply side were limited. By 2020, the supply was in short supply, and the price rose sharply. At the end of 2020, the policy was relaxed again, and photovoltaic glass entered a new round of production expansion.

China's photovoltaic glass production capacity accounts for about 90% of the world's total. According to the statistical capacity information of the photovoltaic glass hearing, CITIC Futures estimates that the effective domestic production capacity in 2022/2023/2024 will be 7.11/9.81/103,000 tons/day, respectively, and the output will be 1972/2721/day. 28.57 million tons, the global output is 21.91/30.23/31.74 million tons. After 2024, the production capacity will increase linearly by 3% per year, and global production is expected to reach 32.69/37.9 million tons in 2025/2030.

The demand for photovoltaic glass in 2022/2025/2030 is 8.35/9.19/10.92 million tons under neutral conditions, and the surplus between supply and demand is 1356/23.50/26.98 million tons. The demand for photovoltaic glass under optimistic conditions is 1341/1528/1926, and the surplus of supply and demand is 850/1741/1864. In the medium term, the global photovoltaic glass production capacity is gradually overcapacity.

From the supply side, a large amount of trona production capacity will not be put into operation until May 2023 at the earliest. The new capacity of ammonia-alkali combined alkali is limited, and the supply-side increment is small. On the demand side, the photovoltaic industry is developing rapidly, photovoltaic glass is in the period of seizing the track, and the production is more active; the float side is also in the complete cycle before the real estate decline, and the high daily melting of float will gradually decrease. Under the optimistic real estate and photovoltaic expectations, the total demand for soda ash in 2022 will be 30.63 million tons, the total supply will be 29.45 million tons, and the overall supply-demand gap will be 1.17 million tons. Under the pessimistic real estate pessimistic photovoltaic expectation, the total demand is 29.68 million tons, and the supply-demand gap is 230,000 tons.