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Upstream Supply and Demand Analysis of Photovoltaic Industry: Polysilicon Oversupply, Silicon Wafer Prices Fell

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Wise Shark wrote a column · Jun 8, 2022 04:53
Core Views:
1. The supply and demand of polysilicon will be tight in 2022, and there may be a surplus of polysilicon after 2023
From the perspective of supply, under the background of polysilicon shortage in 2021, the profit margin of polysilicon will reach more than 80%, prompting domestic enterprises to accelerate production. and relatively stable historical production capacity performance. CITIC Futures believes that assuming that overseas production capacity remains unchanged, the global production capacity will increase from 671,000 tons to 4.152 million tons. The production of upstream industrial silicon can fully cover its output.
In terms of demand, under optimistic/neutral conditions, the global polysilicon demand will be 57/870,000 tons in the photovoltaic industry in 2025, and 67/1.13 million tons in the photovoltaic industry in 2030. The main use of polysilicon is photovoltaics, and the proportion of electronic-grade polysilicon is extremely small. At present, there is an excess of polysilicon production capacity for terminal demand. In the photovoltaic industry chain, due to the rapid expansion of downstream production, there will be a period of shortage. CITIC Futures is expected to grow in 2023 Beginning with the polysilicon surplus.
2. The gap between supply and demand may narrow in the later period
From the perspective of supply, the global silicon wafer production capacity will expand sharply to about 620GW in 2021-2023. Due to the shortage of silicon wafer raw materials in the past three years, the silicon wafer production capacity utilization rate is lower than 70%. my country's silicon wafer production capacity has accounted for more than 95% of the global market in the past three years, and silicon wafers are mainly exported. During the production of silicon wafers, the production cost has been decreasing year by year, and the decline rate of monocrystalline silicon wafers exceeds that of polycrystalline silicon wafers.
From the perspective of demand, under optimistic/neutral conditions, the global photovoltaic silicon wafer demand will be 305GW/198GW in 2025 and 395GW/233GW in 2030. The size of silicon wafers has gradually formed a proportion of 182mm and 210mm, and the thickness of silicon wafers is mainly developed in the direction of ultra-thin. In 2030, the thickness of N-type silicon wafers is expected to be reduced to about 130μm. From the perspective of supply and demand balance, the global silicon wafer has a supply and demand gap in 2017 and 2018, and the supply is insufficient; from 2019 to 2021, it is in a state of tight supply and demand balance. CITIC Futures predicts that the global silicon wafer supply and demand margin will be loose in 2022, and the supply and demand gap may gradually narrow after 2023.
3. Large excess of silicon wafers in 2023
From January to May 2022, the price of monocrystalline silicon wafers has slightly increased Due to the difficulty of preparation and production capacity, the output is limited. Compared with the same period, the price of 182 and 166 monocrystalline silicon wafers has increased significantly. During the same period, polysilicon wafers increased by 50.5%, mainly due to the decrease in the output of polysilicon wafers. Secondly, from the balance of global silicon wafer supply and demand, it can be seen that in 2022, the global silicon wafer supply and demand will begin to change from a tight supply and demand balance in 2021 to a loose supply and demand; in 2023, there will be a large surplus of global silicon wafers, and it is expected that the focus of silicon wafer prices will gradually shift downward.
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