OIL - a special weekend UPDATE
If you dont know iam a commodities bull 🐘 but especially an Oil bull 🛢 It is my largest overall holding and within that OIH is my largest Oil related holding. I have been shouting Oil as much as I can 🗣🗣🗣 trying to save accounts from the bear 🐻.
Oil recently had a trend of consolidation but as I'll show we have broken that now with continued upside ahead. I expect crude (Texas Sweet - it's called that because they used to taste oil like wine to determine the grade) to test 116 and eventually break 120!![]()
$Crude Oil Futures(JUN4)(CLmain.US$
Daily chart: The triangle and the breakout, I drew a somewhat typical breakout pattern. Also notice how the trend is separating from the bottom trendline.
Oil recently had a trend of consolidation but as I'll show we have broken that now with continued upside ahead. I expect crude (Texas Sweet - it's called that because they used to taste oil like wine to determine the grade) to test 116 and eventually break 120!
Daily chart: The triangle and the breakout, I drew a somewhat typical breakout pattern. Also notice how the trend is separating from the bottom trendline.
History often rhymes and can be a predictor of future events (that is all indicators are)
This is building for another run to 120.
🗣🗣🗣HaHa, you knew it was coming! 🗣🗣🗣
OIH: $VanEck Oil Services ETF(OIH.US$ is made up of the Oil suppliers they SUPPLY the oil producers with everything they need to produce Oil. These are the Generals of the Oil industry.
These companies dont actually drill for Oil. They get paid upfront and percentages from the explorers for supplying the land the equipment the infrastructure the transport and the sale of the Oil the explorers find.
They also have contracts that they get paid whether the explorers make a profit or not. These companies can't lose when Oil is over 40!!! - WE ARE OVER 110!!!!! iam not sure how much clearer I could get about these companies.
OIH is primarily 2 companies Schlumberger and Halliburton who make up almost 35% then the next top holdings are Baker Hughes, Tenaris, Nov Inc, Cactus, Patterson UTI energy, and others.
OIH: $VanEck Oil Services ETF(OIH.US$ is made up of the Oil suppliers they SUPPLY the oil producers with everything they need to produce Oil. These are the Generals of the Oil industry.
These companies dont actually drill for Oil. They get paid upfront and percentages from the explorers for supplying the land the equipment the infrastructure the transport and the sale of the Oil the explorers find.
They also have contracts that they get paid whether the explorers make a profit or not. These companies can't lose when Oil is over 40!!! - WE ARE OVER 110!!!!! iam not sure how much clearer I could get about these companies.
OIH is primarily 2 companies Schlumberger and Halliburton who make up almost 35% then the next top holdings are Baker Hughes, Tenaris, Nov Inc, Cactus, Patterson UTI energy, and others.
$Baker Hughes(BKR.US$ I recently bought in on friday at 36.99 lets roll BKR! (already have a lot of SLB & HAL and didn't want to average up) but BKR had the biggest short term run upside- it was 30 just a week ago and I thought it would run and catch up to SLB and HAL at 40 but there was some insider selling (board members sold 1/5, dont know why probably tax they still own a bunch) but that's over now and we should be off running to 40.
$Cactus(WHD.US$ Cactus, operates all over the world, mostly desert climates (Cactus- haha ticker names are cleaver)
Now the Distributors/Sellers: If the Suppliers are the Generals these are your Officers they're the most visible they're the companies you know and see and they also take most the blame for all the perceived ills of the Oil industry.
I hold as ETFs $Energy Select Sector SPDR Fund(XLE.US$ and $Invesco Dynamic Energy Exploration &Production Etf(PXE.US$ (ETFs are baskets of stocks controlled and managed by a fund manager, you pay a small fee for this but don't have to worry about moving allocations to the most profitable outcome, oil/gas ETFs are no different than SPY or QQQ they just own Oil stocks)
The top holdings are
For XLE its 43% Chevron and ExxonMobil and PXE is mostly Occidental, ConocoPhillips, Phillips66, and Marathon - all big names in gasoline and oil derivatives (most notably engine Oil and Oil lubricants)
I hold as ETFs $Energy Select Sector SPDR Fund(XLE.US$ and $Invesco Dynamic Energy Exploration &Production Etf(PXE.US$ (ETFs are baskets of stocks controlled and managed by a fund manager, you pay a small fee for this but don't have to worry about moving allocations to the most profitable outcome, oil/gas ETFs are no different than SPY or QQQ they just own Oil stocks)
The top holdings are
For XLE its 43% Chevron and ExxonMobil and PXE is mostly Occidental, ConocoPhillips, Phillips66, and Marathon - all big names in gasoline and oil derivatives (most notably engine Oil and Oil lubricants)
Clearly breaking out on another run, look for it to test the purple trendline around 90 before cooling down.
BREAKOUT!!! Thin Lizy style - that is a purely beautiful eruption!!!
$Exxon Mobil(XOM.US$ Daily chart
$Chevron(CVX.US$ Daily chart
$Occidental Petroleum(OXY.US$ Daily chart
$ConocoPhillips(COP.US$ iam has a long history with ConocoPhillips, iam literally grew up in a Conoco (yes in mine country, and I still have my Conoco service hat from when I was a child and remember the gas rationing lines) and has owned COP off and on for a lifetime.
iam saw and met the great and legendary Peter Lynch waaay back in the day and always remembered his #1 rule - Invest in What You Know
https://live.moomoo.com/course/content-detail?course_id=55169§ion_id=220327158&type=1&open_type=&source=course&clientver=12.16.6208&main_broker=WzEwMDdd&user_id_type=2&data_ticket=7dbc4883f498999059cb38ef4320eed6&channel=4&clientlang=2&clienttype=53&user_main_broker=WzJd&is_visitor=0&skintype=3&lang=en-us
That's why iam buys commodities (and always comes home to familiar tickers)
iam saw and met the great and legendary Peter Lynch waaay back in the day and always remembered his #1 rule - Invest in What You Know
https://live.moomoo.com/course/content-detail?course_id=55169§ion_id=220327158&type=1&open_type=&source=course&clientver=12.16.6208&main_broker=WzEwMDdd&user_id_type=2&data_ticket=7dbc4883f498999059cb38ef4320eed6&channel=4&clientlang=2&clienttype=53&user_main_broker=WzJd&is_visitor=0&skintype=3&lang=en-us
That's why iam buys commodities (and always comes home to familiar tickers)
How about some Drillers/Explorers: So if the Suppliers are the Generals and the Distributors/Sellers are the Officers than the Drillers/Explorers must be the Enlisted! They do all the work and heavy lifting (literally hard labor). They take most of the risk, and can lead to massive payouts if successful and massive losses if not.
As with all the Oil groups I have ETFs and individual favorites.
$SPDR S&P Oil & Gas Exploration & Production ETF(XOP.US$ This has your usual suspects OXY COP PSX it also has some other tickers like Gulfport, Apache, Whittling, Southwestern Energy, Laredo, and Sinclair (another one iam has a history with *grandpa and dads service station was a Sinclair before a Conoco)
As with all the Oil groups I have ETFs and individual favorites.
$SPDR S&P Oil & Gas Exploration & Production ETF(XOP.US$ This has your usual suspects OXY COP PSX it also has some other tickers like Gulfport, Apache, Whittling, Southwestern Energy, Laredo, and Sinclair (another one iam has a history with *grandpa and dads service station was a Sinclair before a Conoco)
$Southwestern Energy(SWN.US$ I filled in the gaps between the 50MA & 20MA for a visual on the separation gap I talk about.
$Laredo Petroleum(LPI.US$ wow, wow, wow- when this comes down to 79/80 iam in this, this is going to run to 100 quickly. Actually I have it at 97 but once a stock hits 97 it will sometimes hit 100 because mentally that's an easy target, especially if it's been close before (it's almost like making up for missing it last time)
$HF Sinclair(DINO.US$ Another funny ticker- Sinclair's symbol/mascot is a green dinosaur named DINO - I still have an old gas coin with Dino on it.
$Whiting Petroleum(WLL.US$ iam bought this after their lawsuit settled and they were a PENNY STOCK!!! ![]()
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And just to round it out how about some offshore ocean Drillers/Explorers
These are your special forces, they operate in open water skirting as many countrys as possible to avoid overregulation, they are highly trained and very good at what they do. But just like the real special forces the US govt has declared them unnecessary and would love to see them go away or all in dresses.
$Transocean(RIG.US$ A small little driller, has been upsetting nearly all year, prime for a little breakout.
These are your special forces, they operate in open water skirting as many countrys as possible to avoid overregulation, they are highly trained and very good at what they do. But just like the real special forces the US govt has declared them unnecessary and would love to see them go away or all in dresses.
$Transocean(RIG.US$ A small little driller, has been upsetting nearly all year, prime for a little breakout.
OK now that I'm done showing why oil will run, let me warn you.
Yes this will be a MONSTROUS rally/run!!! I expect many stocks to almost double in a couple months...
BUT This is still a bear market (and a bad one) and what I expect is after this MONSTROUS run and the market resumes punishing tech for 20 years of gluttony, they will selloff the Generals last - and that will be your capitulation - and they will sell off hard retracing all the way back to this point (or lower)... So ride the GUSH make loads of money then short the market! be a real iam Dragon
Yes this will be a MONSTROUS rally/run!!! I expect many stocks to almost double in a couple months...
BUT This is still a bear market (and a bad one) and what I expect is after this MONSTROUS run and the market resumes punishing tech for 20 years of gluttony, they will selloff the Generals last - and that will be your capitulation - and they will sell off hard retracing all the way back to this point (or lower)... So ride the GUSH make loads of money then short the market! be a real iam Dragon
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Engineer, Commodity Buyer, Alert Bettor,
Tesla 🌬 Commodities BULL🐘 Precious Metals Dragon 🐲 and OIL Trumpeter 🗣🎺
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Shuseido : this is hell of a effort!
LuckyPiggie : i thought you are the Silver Lone ranger
iamiamOP LuckyPiggie: iam a commodities bull, precious metals dragon, and oil trumpeter. The only things worth owning
iamiamOP : LOOK AT OIL GO!!! 120 by Wednesday? 117.30 was support resistance and it didnt even blink, it's just hanging out at 117.7. OIL OIL OIL
cheerfulknight : Oil still gonna run?
iamiamOP cheerfulknight: YES, look for oil to gap up and run
Cantigal : Potentially oil will run up to what target? Thanks!
iamiamOP Cantigal: 120
iamiamOP : oil up oil stocks down hmmm seems like a good time to buy.
江南公子 : I didn't know YOU dig some many oil
now I have no idea to pick ... though under 10 bucks is more attractive to me.
Thank you for so many great insights!
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