AAII Sentiment Survey: Optimism below 20% for fourth time in seven weeks
Optimism about the short-term direction of the stock market is below 20% for the fourth time in seven weeks according to the latest AAII Sentiment Survey. Pessimism, meanwhile, is above 50% for the fourth time in five weeks.
Sentiment
Bullish sentiment
- Expectations that stock prices will rise over the next six months, pulled back by 6.1 percentage points to 19.8%.
- The decline keeps optimism below its historical average of 38.0% for the 27th consecutive week.
- Bullish sentiment unusually low level for the 17th time out of the last 20 weeks.
Neutral sentiment
- Expectations that stock prices will stay essentially unchanged over the next six months, rebounded by 3.0 percentage points to 26.7%.
- Neutral sentiment levels are below the historical average of 31.5% for the fifth consecutive week.
Bearish sentiment
- Expectations that stock prices will fall over the next six months, rose 3.1 percentage points to 53.5%.
- This is the 26th time out of the past 27 weeks that pessimism is above its historical average of 30.5%.
- It is the 16th time out of the last 19 weeks that bearish sentiment is unusually high.
Opinion: bearish sentiment continues to be unusually high
- As noted above, bullish sentiment remains unusually low while bearish sentiment continues to be unusually high. The bull-bear spread (bullish minus bearish sentiment) is also unusually low.
- Historically, the S&P 500 index has gone on to realize above-average and above-median returns during the six- and 12-month periods following unusually low readings for bullish sentiment and for the bull-bear spread. Unusually high bearish sentiment readings historically have also been followed by above-average and above-median six-month returns in the S&P 500.
Current AAII Sentiment Bull-Bear Spread:
About AAII Semtiment Survey
- Measures the percentage of individual investors who are bullish, bearish, and neutral on the stock market short term.
- Individuals are polled from the AAII Web site on a weekly basis.
Source: AAII
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1994CM : It might take 5 to 10 years or beyond for the US Stock Market to recover completely?
steady Pom pipi : Ha, later, turning a face is faster than flipping through a book, and your mood can change in a second.
BullRunner : Nice thanks so much for all that.
101756392 : A pull back is expected when market reopens on Tuesday. A relief rally is a chance for people to let go of positions
101842143 Faye : Great
xOxtMhxOx : h
whqqq : Thanks for posting I appreciate it.