Account Info
Log Out
English
Back
Log in to access Online Inquiry
Back to the Top

AAII Sentiment Survey: Bearish sentiment is unusually high

avatar
Movers and Shakers wrote a column · May 13, 2022 20:51
The results from the latest AAII Sentiment Survey show neutral sentiment rebounding from last week’s 18-month low. In addition, optimism continues to be unusually low and pessimism continues to be unusually high.
What Direction Do AAII Members Feel The Stock Market Will Be In The Next 6 Months?
Source:AAII
Source:AAII
Sentiment
Bullish sentiment
- Expectations that stock prices will rise over the next six months, decreased by 2.5 percentage points to 24.3%.
- The decline keeps optimism below its historical average of 38.0% for the 25th consecutive week.
- Bullish sentiment also remains at an unusually low level for the 15th time out of the last 18 weeks.
Neutral sentiment
- Expectations that stock prices will stay essentially unchanged over the next six months, increased by 6.4 percentage points to 26.6%.
- The rise puts neutral sentiment back within its typical historical range but was not enough to put it above the historical average of 31.5%.
Bearish sentiment
- Expectations that stock prices will fall over the next six months, decreased by 3.8 percentage points to 49.0%.
- This is the 24th time out of the last 25 weeks that pessimism is above its historical average of 30.5%.
- It is also the 14th time out of the last 17 weeks that bearish sentiment is at an unusually high level.
Opinion: bearish sentiment is unusually high
- At current levels, bullish sentiment and the bull-bear spread (bullish minus bearish sentiment) are all unusually low. Meanwhile, bearish sentiment is unusually high.
- Historically, the S&P 500 index has gone on to realize above-average and above-median returns during the six- and 12-month periods following unusually low readings for bullish sentiment and for the bull-bear spread. Unusually high bearish sentiment readings historically have also been followed by above-average and above-median six-month returns in the S&P 500.
About AAII Semtiment Survey
- Measures the percentage of individual investors who are bullish, bearish, and neutral on the stock market short term.
- Individuals are polled from the AAII Web site on a weekly basis.
Source: AAII
Disclaimer: Moomoo Technologies Inc. is providing this content for information and educational use only. Read more
1
2
1
1
31
+0
6
Translate
Report
25K Views
Comment
Sign in to post a comment