So after fed minutes and speeding up of the quantatitve tigh...
So after fed minutes and speeding up of the quantatitve tightening by 2x compared to 2017-2019 period, what are you to expect now?
Did the market really price in that doubling of tightening? I doubt it. We will have to see the next few weeks whether it's really priced in as said by many or they just didn't know what they were talking about. So far it is showing weakness and that based off technicals, the week should end red after the distribution at 15k last week.
How do you know the distribution ended and it's time for mark down? Through that gap down we had yesterday. today will be a stick save event where we try to push up and cover that gap but it will most likely fail and we will continue the wave down.
Main question would be when this wave end, will we get a higher low? or a lower low? that we will find out soon! why in a hurry? trade the markets as it is! volatility is expanding again soon as we can see from the Vix and big money to be made and lost. Many traders will soon sit at the sideline again as they will find this market extremely hard to navigate.
Watch the video to understand better what we are likely to face.
As always trade safe and invest wise!
Subscribe to my YouTube channel for your weekly market outlook and technical analysis videos! www.youtube.com/c/investing101channel
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MyDearQy : Always appreciate your advice
beedeebee : I'm already sitting on the side line. Waiting for the opportunity to come.
Greenback Stocks : i read a similar post elsewhere. evidence is there for a bullish 2022 but the variables haven't been priced. it will happen in may. we should be looking for an exit strategy for the last week in April.
what stocks will be safe? is latin America and energy safer bets?
dwarrior : I do daily trade to wait for another leg down.
Investing 101OP beedeebee: haha. it should come soon!
103857991 : Will it be retracement to look out for today?
Your Average Trader : IMO markets had already started to price in a more hawkish fed. Some evidence is suggested by Fedwatch - after yesterday's minutes release only an increase of 10% chance of 50 basis point hike expectation from the day before. Further evidence can be directly gotten from bond market itself which didnt seem to have as bad a sell off as compared to the initial 7 rate hike plan came out on March 16th. However that being said whether markets keep being ignorant of potential headwinds or do they actully take the hint only time will tell.
Investing 101OP Your Average Trader: they priced in 50bp hike. how many priced in the speeding up of quantitative tightening?
Your Average Trader Investing 101OP: Ah yea nobody really knew what the exact BS reduction amount was going to be but starting with a mix of Tresuries and MBS was expected. Brainard came in the day before warning markets to not be surprised by big BS reduction. So yea that potentially gave the markets a day to absorb the expectation IMO
Investing 101OP Your Average Trader: after what the market experienced in 2018 where we had huge liquidity shortage, and twice the speed this time round, I believe at this valuation, it's not priced in.
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