This time maybe be different?
Yield inversions may have predicted past recessions but is this time different?
Well one argument is that for all previous inversions the long end of the curve usually didn't have such sharp of a rise infact tended to decline. Further adding to the uniqueness of this years inversion is the short end of the curve, the correlation between 3month to 10year and 2year to 10 year hasn't been so wide in previous inversions.
Another argument comes from the 10 year having an artificial rate due to FEDs QE policies. Had there been no QE the 10year would have been a lot higher.
Lastly a reminder from the Fed:
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Jessy 10 : So boss do you think that Nasdaq will have a big drop？
Your Average TraderOP Jessy 10: There's definitely going to be pullbacks in the near future but a big drops due to recession, no I do not see that yet. However if yields remain inverted or if inversion gets worse then IMO probability of big drop increases.
Imso : sir will the incoming pullback have the strength for nqx to break lower low from 2 weeks ago, been rallying non stop...
Your Average TraderOP Imso: If your asking if $E-mini NASDAQ 100 Futures(JUN4) (NQmain.US)$ will drop ~15% to its all time lows again than no. That is NOT the type of pullback I'm seeing right now. I'm seeing more a 5% to 10% pullback. However my opinion will change constantly as I get more data such as economic releases, bond market movements etc