Things to watch out for next week - March 28th - April 1st

*Just noticed it missing PCE release and Average Hourly Earnings release on Thursday and Friday respectively*
Commodity prices still in play. Even though there is not much correlation between oil and S&P historically speaking but if Crude were to break key levels like $120 i expect to see markets move towards the downside. Pay attention to Opec+ meeting on March 21st. Some experts are predicting no change in output production. (Source: Marketwatch)
War like i mentioned in my previous post has become somewhat of an background noise. So not much of a headline risk from there unless something nuclear or nato involved happens.
Bond Market still looks relatively healthy. The flatenning occuring in the "mid-end" of the curve rather than the very front end i.e 3 and 6 month. High yield credit spread remains low.

One argument for recent stock market rally is the inflow from bond markets. The bond markets has seen some of its worst days in history after the FED announced its 7 rate hikes. The sell off clearly showed markets did not price in such an hawkish fed, but yet tech rallied? Well this is where the argument comes in. Considering the economic strength, the negative real yield and the amount of money in circulation where els should money flow into in the short term? That brings up the question though, is the rally really fundamentally driven? In my opinion, not entirely and the following charts should do some explaining. These charts also happen to be the most important fundimentals market movers i.e upcoming April's major earning release.

Personal Outlook: Since this is only for next week (a lot harder to do than if i did for the entire year), key economic releases + market headlines will provide the sentiment but Bias is towards the downside  A lot of technicals (suggest finding your own, do not want to make this way to long so will simply share 2 screenshots) will be at play. In one sentence: I do not expect markets to break though major resistances next week considering how much buying has happened past 2 weeks nor do I expect to see major sell off, citrus paribus. Translating this into a trade e.g (for reference only) : Day tarde - Short AAPL ~ $176 stop at $177 and take profit at ~$175 ~ $174 etc trailing stop loss.