Hong Kong stocks: A revaluation of the "mini rally bull market"

For Hong Kong stocks, this year is a small rebound bull market brought by high quality value stocks fall deep rebound.

Compared with $Hang Seng Index(800000.HK)$ , the better index for Hong Kong stocks this year is the red chip index (HSCCI), which has almost no private companies, mainly state-owned and central enterprises.

The SOE index may be weaker than the Hang Seng. Now the INDEX of State-owned Enterprises (HSCEI), the full name of the China Enterprise Index, is no longer purely state-owned, as it was before 2018.

Since 2018, the SOE index has changed its compiling method to include some private companies and the Internet, which accounts for nearly 40 percent of the index.

In the Hang Seng index, technology-related enterprises represented by the Internet account for almost 30%, that is to say, 70% of the enterprises are non-Internet, and more than half of the 70% are pure value stocks.

The revaluation of value stocks this year is mainly reflected in the finance and real estate of high-quality state-owned and central enterprises, as well as the local finance and real estate in Hong Kong. Together, these two stocks account for half of the Hang Seng Index, and with some cyclical stocks, almost more than 50%.

These value sectors, which account for more than 50% of the Hang Seng Index, have a relatively large probability of a rebound of 30%-50% this year, mainly due to some improvement in fundamentals and superposition of the repair of valuation.

Internet companies, accounting for about 30% of the total, will not be as close to half as last year, this year may be in the bottom area of the deep rebound, push-ups, it limited drag on the index.

We estimate that this year, the constant index is expected to rise from 23,000 to 28,000，the bottom is set, the rebound, the bottom will be strengthened, and the second half of the year will be higher.

In the fourth quarter of this year, the mid-term elections in the United States and the 20th National Congress in China, political factors are clear, and China's economic recovery, all contribute to Hong Kong stocks in the fourth quarter of this year to present a small peak.

For 2022 as a whole, it is a technical rebound mini bull market.

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