I doubt if those institutions all have crystal ball but the ...

I doubt if those institutions all have crystal ball but the past 5 years, especially the last 2 years, are not the normal. With many dramas going on now, post-China cracking down on Big Tech, Sino-US relationship, Russia-Ukraine tension, global inflammation, populism driven governments, etc, the next 1-2 years could be highly volatile.

So unless one knows which institution to follow, I would think passive investment will achieve better return than institutions average