Vote Now | Will the S&P 500 score or fumble?
If you are bullish on stocks, it's a good news for you that the NFC's L.A. Rams pummel Joe Burrow's Cincinnati Bengals.
That is, of course you are a big believer in the Super Bowl Indicator.
The often bantered about Super Bowl Indicator suggests that stocks rise for the full year when the Super Bowl winner has come from the NFC, but when an AFC team wins it falls. Of course this is insane in principle as stocks move up and down based on expectations for the future earnings of their underlying companies.
But as Ryan Detrick, LPL Financial's chief market strategist (aka the QB of his team), points out, the stats don't lie on the predictive powers of the Super Bowl Indicator.
Detrick's research shows that the S&P 500 has performed better, and posted positive gains with greater frequency, over the past 55 Super Bowl games when NFC teams have won. An NFC winner has produced a positive year for the S&P 500 79% of the time, while the benchmark index has been up only 65% of the time when the winner came from the AFC.
That is, of course you are a big believer in the Super Bowl Indicator.
The often bantered about Super Bowl Indicator suggests that stocks rise for the full year when the Super Bowl winner has come from the NFC, but when an AFC team wins it falls. Of course this is insane in principle as stocks move up and down based on expectations for the future earnings of their underlying companies.
But as Ryan Detrick, LPL Financial's chief market strategist (aka the QB of his team), points out, the stats don't lie on the predictive powers of the Super Bowl Indicator.
Detrick's research shows that the S&P 500 has performed better, and posted positive gains with greater frequency, over the past 55 Super Bowl games when NFC teams have won. An NFC winner has produced a positive year for the S&P 500 79% of the time, while the benchmark index has been up only 65% of the time when the winner came from the AFC.
S&P Global Market Intelligence also took a look at Super Bowl history and market returns to come up with their own list of notable correlations related to the big dance.
According to S&P, Super Bowls in which the final combined score was higher than 45 points, the stock market returns 15.9% on average, while returns average only 8.2% when the combined score is 45 or less.
The market seems to prefer the LA Rams to their St. Louis counterparts, at least in the Super Bowl. In the two Super Bowls the Rams played in while located in Los Angeles, the market was up an average of 32.0%. During the two Super Bowls the St. Louis Rams played in, the average market return was a lowly -15.6%.
Mooers, any thoughts on the weird correlation between the Super Bowl and the stock market? Will the S&P 500 score or fumble? Vote and comment below!!!!
The market seems to prefer the LA Rams to their St. Louis counterparts, at least in the Super Bowl. In the two Super Bowls the Rams played in while located in Los Angeles, the market was up an average of 32.0%. During the two Super Bowls the St. Louis Rams played in, the average market return was a lowly -15.6%.
Mooers, any thoughts on the weird correlation between the Super Bowl and the stock market? Will the S&P 500 score or fumble? Vote and comment below!!!!
Source: Yahoo Finance, Reuters
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Durian Crust : Correlation is not causation
Bandidos : I always score on the first date. I m too sexy for my shirt.
lalafafa098 : love it
Qui Vivra Verra Durian Crust: exactly when it comes to statistics
Mama Cass : I love these silly superstitions, but that's all they are. It's like reading your horoscope - for entertainment purposes only.
divinepapa : The fundamental of earnings shall prevail. Expectinh Organic Growth spur the stock market sentiment, c9nsumer confident boost stock prices naturally.
Divinemama : Growth for year 2022