Is Russia really going to war?

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Fear mongering is a political tool used very frequently to spook their people, especially key levelers for a better position in negotiations. Massing of troops fulfill key agenda of both Biden and Putin.
Putin key resources are natural gas and oil, but he is not getting a good deal from the European. Ukraine become a convenient pawn for his negotiations with them. Going to war not only is it resources intensive, he will pay a high leverage price against his international partners.
Biden popularity is faltering and his bills are not passed even when he got majority in the lower house. An impending international crisis will spur his pressure to get the bill passed.
Of course Putin can press a button and go to war,. but Russians are all known as great chess players. Once his deal is achieved, I believe he will pull out his troops but continue to fund the separatist.
Let's see how this plays out. A breakout would be a Black Swan event, so ready your cash for discounts. My two current holdings and by 2 cents.