Organization : the spring market is expected to open gradually

At the beginning of 2022 , the domestic stock market continued to pull back under the disturbance of the expected tightening of overseas monetary policy , the effect of domestic policy has not yet been shown , capital risk aversion and other factors . Where will the market go after the Spring Festival ? In this regard , 10 billion private equity star stone investments issued the latest point of view .

The agency believes that after the Spring Festival , A shares are digesting negative factors , and it is expected that the spring market will gradually open .

From a domestic point of view , policy synergy and positive factors are emerging .

2022 the overall manufacturing sector remained stable at the beginning of the year . In January , the manufacturing PMI remained above the rise and fall line of the third month in a row . Although it entered the off-season of production , the production side maintained good resilience under the support of factors such as holiday consumption stock preparation and post-holiday stock preparation .

At the same time , the expected index of production and business activities in January was 57.5% , 3.2 percentage points higher than that in December 2021 . Manufacturing enterprises is more optimistic about the market development prospects , indicating that the existing " stable growth " policy has played a role in boosting market expectations , and the pressure of " weakening expectations " may have been marginally alleviated .

January non-manufacturing PMI performance differentiation , the construction industry is expected to improve after the holiday . Although the current situation and expected performance of the service industry suppressed by the epidemic are weak , the expected index of business activities in the construction industry is 64.4% , which is significantly higher than that in December 2021 . The construction industry is expected to improve after the Spring Festival , and the positive impact on infrastructure on the economy will gradually become apparent .

In terms of infrastructure , there is a high probability that post-holiday infrastructure investment will continue to accelerate . On the one hand , the financial front provides financial support . The 1.2 trillion yuan issued from / with the fourth quarter of 2021 will form a physical workload this year , superimposed with 1.46 trillion yuan of special bonds approved in advance . According to Wind , 583.702 billion yuan of new bonds were issued by local governments in January 2022 , compared with zero issuance in the same period in 2021 .

On the other hand the investment growth rate announced by the two conferences is mostly higher than the GDP growth rate , and it is clear that " moderately ahead of the layout of major infrastructure " , major projects started as early as 2021 . The epidemic situation and its prevention and control are evolving from / into the direction of minimizing the impact . Although the number of new confirmed cases of China before the Spring Festival has increased compared with last year , the scale of Spring Festival travel has increased .

During the seven-day Spring Festival holiday this year , railways , highways , waterways and civil aviation across the country are expected to send 130 million passengers , an increase in 31.7 percent over the same period in 2021 . This year , the prevention and control of the epidemic are more refined , and the delineation of medium-and high-risk areas is smaller , reducing the impact on residents ' travels / travelled . Low-risk areas do not need to celebrate the Spring Festival on the spot , and epidemic control is no longer " across-the-board " . It also helps to interfere with the economy .

Looking back , a joint force on the policy side is taking shape . With the approach from / to the two sessions , domestic stable growth policies will continue to make efforts , and more stable growth policies may be on the way . On February 6 , the relevant responsible person of the National Development and Reform Commission said that " the combined effects of the 'seven major policies ' of macro , micro , structure , science and technology , reform and opening up , region , and society continue to release , " and that " there is still more room for macro policies and more policy reserve tools ." . have the ability to maintain the smooth operation of the economy .

Overseas , stock market sentiment picked up during the Spring Festival holiday and risk appetite continued to repair . The tightening of overseas liquidity has formed strong expectations , and overseas markets are gradually digesting the expectations of the Federal Reserve to raise interest rates . During the period from January 28 to February 6 , the NASDAQ and Dow Jones Industrial averages / averaged to rose 5.58% and 2.72% respectively , while South Korea's Composite Index and Nikkei 225 Index rose 5.19% and 4.85% respectively , and the Hang Seng Index rose 3.22% .