Institutions: The banking sector is likely to rise in January

At the beginning of the new year, bank stocks' 2021 performance forecast continued to exceed expectations, and also become a rare strong gold-absorbing plate of A-shares at present.

It is worth mentioning that, looking back, many institutions think that bank stocks will have a good market in the first quarter.

Let's move on.

The author noticed that the main funds also increased their holdings of bank shares at the same time. As of the close of trading on January 11, the banking sector received a net inflow of more than 2.5 billion yuan of main funds in a single day, and a net inflow of 9.717 billion yuan in the last five trading days, ranking second among 31 emergency industries.

On January 10,Xingye Bank issued a forecast for 2021, showing a year-on-year increase in net profit of 24.1%, the highest growth rate in nearly nine years.

After the trading on January 11, Jiangsu Bank and Changshu Bank released their resultsexpress one after another. Of this total, Jiangsu Bank made a net profit of 19.694 billion yuan in 2021, an increase of 30.72% over the same period last year, while Changshu Bank made a net profit of 2.184 billion yuan in 2021, an increase of 21.13% over the same period last year. The performance of bank stocks was brilliant, which strongly boosted the confidence of the banking sector.

Haitong International said that some A-share listed banks released resultsexpress. Among them,Xingye Bank and Sunong Bank released more detailed data, showing a good situation of "accelerated profit + bad decline + increased provision + increased loan share". The whole industry will show a trend of good performance, not just individual companies.

With the bank stock performance continues to exceed expectations, plate valuation repair is expected to continue to strengthen.

As of January 11, the CSB index was trading at a price-to-book ratio of 5.47 times earnings and a price-to-book ratio of 0.65 times, down from nearly 98 percent since its listing in 2013, and a dividend yield of nearly 5 per cent, according to Wind. Wind data statistics nearly 10 years of historical data found that the lower the overall price-to-book ratio of the banking sector, corresponding to the next year income probability, the expected rate of return space continues to rise.

Huatai Securities said that historically, the banking sector tended to receive excess returns relative to the Shanghai Composite Index in January, mainly driven by performance release, policy catalysis and capital allocation. The fundamentals of listed banks are expected to continue to improve in 2021, with theprofit growth of 12.9%. Standing at the current time, under the background of continuous improvement in banking fundamentals, more proactive policies, and switching capital style to undervalued sectors, we are firmly optimistic about the repair market of the banking sector.

In addition, Haitong Xun Yugen believes that the market and value style will dominate in 2022. At the end of the year and the beginning of the year, the market structure will be more balanced, focusing on undervalued big finance, high prosperity of hard technology, etc., the current real estate policy has undergone positive changes, bank real estate is expected to usher in valuation repair opportunities.