$ABN AMRO BANK N.V. UNSPON ADS EACH REP 1 ORD SHS (AAVMY.US)...

I think ABN AMRO () will present an interesting long opportunity if weakness around the latest COVID flareup intensifies. Using my year-end 2021 tangible book value estimate of around 21.1 EUR/share, the stock is currently trading at a discount of about 40%, with a very strong capital position compared to other European peers (CET 1 around 16% based on Basel IV). I estimate the CET 1 buffer relative to management's 13% target is around 3.7B EUR, or 3.94 EUR/share. In essence, over the long term shareholders can expect substantial distributions in excess of the standard 50% payout ratio. However, the latest lockdown in the Netherlands will cloud visibility on credit conditions and will likely backload potential excess capital returns to the second half of 2022. Finally, the of the headquarters will provide a boost to Q4 results.