What signal was Chiese central bank’s fiscal policy released
The Central Economic Work Conference was held in Beijing from December 8th to 10th to summarize the economic work in 2021, analyze the current economic situation, and plan economic work in 2022.
The Central Economic Work Conference sent a clear signal: a new round of steady growth is coming, the currency is turning to loose, the fiscal policy is turning to proactive, supporting new infrastructure, new energy, technological innovation, promoting a virtuous circle of real estate soft landing, and correcting the movement of a one-size-fits-all approach.
Two-cycle, stable growth, new infrastructure, soft landing, and valuation increase are the five key keywords for next year
In response to the requirements for 2022, the Central Economic Work Conference put forward the idea of "Stability as a priority and seeking progress while stability", "Continue to do a good job in the'six stability' and'six guarantees', focus on stabilizing the macroeconomic market, and keep the economy operating within a reasonable range." , "Promote the economy to achieve steady improvement in quality and reasonable growth in quantity."
Looking ahead, dual-cycle, stable growth, new infrastructure, soft landing, and valuation increase are the five key keywords for next year.
The key word of the world economy is the Sino-US dual cycle. The key word of China’s macro policy is steady growth. The core of the new economy is new infrastructure. The core of the old economy is the soft landing of real estate. The main opportunity for the capital market is "valuation, stability Growth and new infrastructure". Next year, the momentum of economic growth will also switch, from export support to consumption recovery, new infrastructure development, and real estate soft landing.
Set the tone for next year’s property market: speed up the establishment of a housing system featuring multi-subject supply, multi-channel guarantee, and simultaneous rental and purchase
The Central Economic Work Conference listed "accelerating the establishment of a housing system with multi-subject supply, multi-channel guarantee, and simultaneous rental and purchase" as a key task for promoting high-quality development, and pointed out that it is necessary to improve the long-term mechanism to promote the stable and healthy development of the real estate market.
The meeting proposed to develop the housing leasing market, especially long-term leasing, protect the legitimate rights and interests of leasing stakeholders, and support the development of specialized and institutionalized housing leasing companies. The meeting also emphasized that it is necessary to maintain the continuity and stability of the real estate market control policies, distinguish the central and local powers, and implement differentiated control.
Liu Hongyu, director of the Real Estate Research Institute of Tsinghua University, said that reshaping and perfecting my country's housing system and perfecting the long-term mechanism of real estate regulation are fundamental measures for realizing the "housing" of all people and the long-term stable and healthy development of the real estate market. "my country's real estate control policies have shown good control effects. There are many positive changes in the current market. However, maintaining the continuity and stability of the control policies is still vital to promoting the stable and healthy development of the market and preventing risks." Liu Hongyu said.
Liu Hongyu believes that it takes a time period for the full effect of the regulation and control policy to appear, and it cannot be adjusted frequently according to the signs and signs of the market, otherwise it will easily lead to excessive regulation, which is not conducive to the formation of benign market expectations. In addition, the implementation of differentiated control can make the control more precise and refined, and the control policy formulated by the central government can be more localized.
The combination of new energy and coal can take the road of low-carbon transition with Chinese characteristics
Compared with last year's meeting, this year's meeting was more specific and pragmatic in the deployment of "carbon peak" and "carbon neutral" work, emphasizing that "you can't complete your work in one task." Adhere to the principles of national overall planning, saving priority, two-wheel drive, smooth flow inside and outside, and risk prevention. The gradual withdrawal of traditional energy should be based on the safe and reliable replacement of new energy.
Gao Ruidong, Managing Director and Chief Macro Economist of Everbright Securities: Vigorously develop new energy and promote the optimal combination of coal and new energy
Based on coal as the main national condition, we will start to break and ensure energy supply. The substantial decline in the proportion of fossil energy is an inevitable trend. However, it is necessary to realize that my country's current energy structure relies on coal and gradually promote the reform of the energy structure. At this stage, on the one hand, it is to improve the clean and efficient use of coal. On the other hand, it is to vigorously develop new energy and promote the optimal combination of coal and new energy.
The science and technology policy emphasizes "solid implementation", and the reform of the science and technology system and mechanism is expected to accelerate
Compared with last year's conference, this year, in the field of scientific and technological innovation, more emphasis is placed on the solid implementation of scientific and technological policies. Promote independent innovation of science and technology by accelerating the reform of science and technology systems and mechanisms. It is clearly necessary to implement a three-year action plan for the reform of the scientific and technological system. In addition, based on the integration of national science and technology institutes, major laboratories and other major scientific and technological innovation resources, the importance of improving and optimizing the scientific and technological innovation ecology is emphasized.
Dong Qi, chief analyst of Guotai Junan Macro:
It is emphasized that science and technology policies must be firmly implemented, and it is expected that the reform of the system and mechanism and the strengthening of basic research will be the two main points of force. The new cycle of "Technology-Industry-Finance" will be revitalized, and the new "little giants" of specialization and specialization will usher in better opportunities. On the one hand, the reform of the science and technology system and mechanism will be further, the government functions are expected to change, and the status of enterprises as the main body of innovation will become more prominent. On the other hand, focusing on the systematic "repair of shortcomings", the "Decade of Action Plan for Basic Research (2021-2030)" will point out the direction.
Tang Jianwei, Chief Researcher of the Financial Research Center of Bank of Communications:
The meeting formulated mid- and long-term planning plans for the deployment of scientific and technological system reforms and basic research, and focused more on solving the system and mechanism problems that have been plagued by the development of scientific and technological innovation in my country. , Major scientific and technological innovations build a good policy environment and ecology. In addition, more emphasis is placed on creating a good and healthy soft environment and scientific research atmosphere for scientific and technological innovation, removing the long-term institutional and institutional barriers that have restricted scientific and technological innovation, and stimulating the creativity and subjective initiative of scientific and technological research and development personnel.
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