$SPDR S&P 500 ETF (SPY.US)$ Has anyone noticed the U.S. stoc...
$SPDR S&P 500 ETF(SPY.US$ Has anyone noticed the U.S. stock market is trading at 209% of GDP versus an average (across cycles) of 85%?
When the housing bubble burst, this ratio fell all the way down to 50%.
Inflation is rising.
Rates are rising.
Markets will...de-risk.
There's a yawning gap between 209% and 85%...or 50%.
The window is closing.
Time to sell.
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Dot Len : You may very well be right. I'm going to hoard cash now and scale into div payers on the way down. All in all - the same thing, guess. I don't own any of the real high flyers right now anyway - so not much to sell.
Tomcattie : You're looking at this the wrong way. Apple/Tesla make a lot of their profits internationally, mainly from China. If you're going to use the SPY-to-GPD ratio, then use the GLOBAL GDP, not the U.S. only.
Mars shu : The world economy globalized decades ago!
This is - BY FAR - the highest level we've seen in 30 years.
muchtime : This market is more expensive than 1999. From 2000-2003, the Nasdaq fell 87%...and took 14 years to claw back to breakeven. There's a bad moon on the rise.
Mikalov1 muchtime: You're absolutely right, but good luck convincing most of the people on these boards - many are absolutely hypnotized by the dizzying gains lately and have found a way to convince themselves it will continue forever. It is truly the "euphoria" phase before the storm. All we can do is batten down the hatches and be ready.