$Alibaba (BABA.US)$ Munger (and for that matter Buffet) have...
$Alibaba(BABA.US$ Munger (and for that matter Buffet) have seen and felt this kind of negative market sentiment more often than most of us can fathom... literally through 'end of world' times and several periods where global capital markets are themselves a 'toxic wasteland'. But Munger is in on BABA and I can see why... there is an OCEAN of safety here given long term Chinese macro prospects, and with short term weakness, the CCP will lay off. China will not shoot itself in the foot and wants to see its real economic soldiers, of global conquest succeed. Amazon had periods of lower growth too, but Bezos was always 10 quarters + ahead... I see no material difference here, given long term outlook. There is a lot of noise and bear porn given the prominence of the stock, but I believe this is part and par - to be expected, and if embraced, you'll look like a genius in 10 years even if the stock is only traded in Beijing.
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Kieron Morley : Or it is possible that Munger made a mistake. He isn't infallible and doesn't bat 1.000.
Spider-Man to moon Kieron Morley: If he did bat 1.000, it would stand to reason he was either overly conservative, or very lucky, maybe both.
Sam White Spider-Man to moon: How well does Munger understand Xi/CCP compared to how well he understands COSTco?
MHfin : Munger has no expertise that is superior in technology/ecommerce let alone tech/ecommerce in CCP controlled territory.
2uEaAZ5u1B MHfin: How well do we really know what Charlie thinks, knows, or does?
H3U3lt3Ycd MHfin: Pabrai didnt bail. Last quarter he sold 75% of the shares he had bought and is probably buying them back at lower prices now.
yo5swZ8f6A MHfin: We all have confirmation bias. We only hear what we want to hear. We only see what we want to see. In this current market, technical analysis is more important than fundamentals. Fear begets fear in a corrective market as much as greed amplifies greed in a bull trend. For all the talking heads promoting the value sectors, growth has outperformed value this year and last and last 3, 5, 10 years.
9eb4qiNAAD : Yes, so does Graham on margin pre 1929. Glad that he took advice from his teacher and reduced margin substantially and got a net 70% haircut, a 10% outperformance of 80% market decline until 1932.
Good luck my friend.