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EV leader or follower: will Rivian beat this IPO season?
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Why I Want In On This EV IPO

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Daniel Acret joined discussion · Nov 10, 2021 05:29
$Rivian Automotive(RIVN.US)$ another highly competent 100% EV manufacturer, is set to go public shortly in an IPO that should value the startup at around $65 billion. I want to own this stock, but first, what makes 100% EV companies "hot" in the first place, and why are they valued like high-growth tech companies rather than traditional automakers?
There are essentially only a handful of prominent "true" EV manufacturers. Holding a trillion-dollar-plus valuation in this space, $Tesla(TSLA.US)$ is the current undisputed leader in this sector. However, other players like $Lucid Group(LCID.US)$ , $NIO Inc(NIO.US)$ , $XPeng(XPEV.US)$ and now Rivian are emerging and should capture significant market share in future years.
These companies trade at 10-20X expected sales because their revenues are exploding and should continue to advance notably higher in the coming years. The EV segment is growing at remarkable speed, and the aging ICE industry could be left in the dust much sooner than many envisioned.
Global monthly EV sales and YoY growth
Global monthly EV sales and YoY growth
While traditional automakers are still pivoting toward more robust 100% EV programs, I now consider their ICE segments as future liabilities rather than assets. The EV sector should perpetually take market share away from ICE as we advance. Thus, you're looking at stagnant growth and lower profitability potential with traditional automakers vs. higher profitability and nearly limitless growth potential with high-quality 100% EV manufacturers. That is why we have such a massive disconnect in valuations, as traditional ICE companies and 100% EV manufacturers are two very different segments with significantly different profitability and growth dynamics.
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