Overall, Goldman predicts CPI will remain around 5% at the s...

Overall, Goldman predicts CPI will remain around 5% at the start of 2022, then fall to 4% and 3.1% at the end of the year, which is still one percentage point above the Fed's 2% inflation target.

Goldman Sachs economists David Mericle and Spencer Hill note in a report that while the PCE is the Fed's preferred inflation measure, all kinds of inflation data will matter when the trend begins to wane in the middle of next year, making an early rate hike in 2022 highly likely.

For now, Fed officials are sticking to the term "transitory inflation," which will abate as supply chain problems are resolved. This evening, the September PCE price index will be released. Dow expects 3.7%.