Stock Repurchases Are Increasing After A 2020 Slowdown
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KEY BACKGROUND
Companies are now flush with cash to make stock repurchases – Pence indicated that S&P 500 companies held $1.9 trillion in cash at the end of 2020 – the highest level ever and up nearly $400 billion compared to 2019. For now, Pence said, companies making the majority of share repurchases are currently trading at a discount to the broader market – suggesting they are optimistic about higher share prices going forward. Graham also noted that big banks are facing Federal Reserve-mandated stress tests to determine if they can resume normal levels of share buybacks. But since these banks are “sitting on significant levels of excess capital,” that should allow them to easily navigate next month’s stress tests and eventually accelerate stock buyback programs, which, in turn, could lead investors to increase their exposure to banking stocks. Winston Chua, an analyst at EPFR Global, cited another reason companies repurchase shares. “Buybacks increase a company’s earnings per share without an actual increase in profits. This would in turn drop the [price-earnings] ratio, making the company look more attractive,” he told Forbes.
KEY BACKGROUND
Companies are now flush with cash to make stock repurchases – Pence indicated that S&P 500 companies held $1.9 trillion in cash at the end of 2020 – the highest level ever and up nearly $400 billion compared to 2019. For now, Pence said, companies making the majority of share repurchases are currently trading at a discount to the broader market – suggesting they are optimistic about higher share prices going forward. Graham also noted that big banks are facing Federal Reserve-mandated stress tests to determine if they can resume normal levels of share buybacks. But since these banks are “sitting on significant levels of excess capital,” that should allow them to easily navigate next month’s stress tests and eventually accelerate stock buyback programs, which, in turn, could lead investors to increase their exposure to banking stocks. Winston Chua, an analyst at EPFR Global, cited another reason companies repurchase shares. “Buybacks increase a company’s earnings per share without an actual increase in profits. This would in turn drop the [price-earnings] ratio, making the company look more attractive,” he told Forbes.
SURPRISING FACT
Some stock buybacks can actually be bad for a company, as they can reduce a company’s ability to weather a crisis. Pence cited the airlines as an example. Over the last decade, he said, the biggest U.S. airlines spent 96% of their free cash flow on buybacks, and as a result had to get U.S. government support to the tune of around $54 billion between The Coronavirus Aid, Relief, and Economic Security (CARES) Act, omnibus Covid relief deal, and the American Rescue Plan when Covid crimped demand for air travel.
Some stock buybacks can actually be bad for a company, as they can reduce a company’s ability to weather a crisis. Pence cited the airlines as an example. Over the last decade, he said, the biggest U.S. airlines spent 96% of their free cash flow on buybacks, and as a result had to get U.S. government support to the tune of around $54 billion between The Coronavirus Aid, Relief, and Economic Security (CARES) Act, omnibus Covid relief deal, and the American Rescue Plan when Covid crimped demand for air travel.
WHAT TO WATCH FOR
Burns McKinney, managing director and portfolio manager at NFJ Investment Group in Dallas, told Forbes he expects buybacks to “ramp up” throughout this year. “Corporate cash balances remain high, and optimism is rising,” he said. “This may be particularly true of the banks, as restrictions on buybacks and dividends [expire].”
Burns McKinney, managing director and portfolio manager at NFJ Investment Group in Dallas, told Forbes he expects buybacks to “ramp up” throughout this year. “Corporate cash balances remain high, and optimism is rising,” he said. “This may be particularly true of the banks, as restrictions on buybacks and dividends [expire].”
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