January 15th #Bitcoin Market Overview and Data:

January 15th #Bitcoin Market Overview and Data:

On the macro side, we're currently in a recovery phase with strong risk appetite in US equities, especially tech stocks. The current market sentiment is optimistic, favoring high-beta assets.

In contrast, #BTC has started to pull back independently, diverging from the US stock market again. The biggest difference this week lies in the progress of crypto legislative frameworks. As many have noted recently, the advancement of these frameworks is indeed a key factor driving BTC’s independent movement this week.

The core clarity bill has now been postponed for review, leading to a lack of upward momentum for BTC, which may result in further pullbacks. Meanwhile, US equities and tech stocks continue to rise. I believe this marks a rebalancing phase between tech stocks and BTC this week — one running ahead while the other lags. When the unique positive drivers for crypto fade, the two will need to reconcile their performance gaps.

Back to the charts: The theme remains focused on pullbacks.

The price is currently within the third critical range but only maintained a 10-day consolidation in the second range, which I think is insufficient. Going forward, we should watch whether support near $94,800 holds. If it doesn’t, BTC may retreat back to the second range for more consolidation.

I’m relatively optimistic about this pullback. The focus is on where an effective bottom might form in the second range, transitioning into a consolidation phase. This pullback presents a good buying opportunity. If missed, it might be challenging to find another chance like this for some time.

Over the next couple of days, let's first see if $94,800 can hold as support. Stay patient during the pullback. If it does hold, it could indicate a short-term correction, stabilizing and consolidating within a few days before potentially rebounding to test $98,000. Conversely, if it breaks down, the correction period could extend, and a four-hour chart pullback lasting a week would be quite normal.

I prefer deeper corrections because a retest through a deep pullback can set up a smoother breakout above the $98,000 resistance in the next upward move.

Market Data:

Although the market is pulling back, market data looks solid and appears more optimistic compared to before.

1. Although the market value dropped during the pullback, BTC did not excessively dominate the market share, indicating that the market is neither panicked nor pessimistic about this correction.

2. Trading volume has moderately decreased, and trading sentiment dropped due to the pullback, which is at a normal level.

3. A large amount of capital flowed back, with an increase of 1.2 billion, bringing the current total to 313.3 billion.

However, there was no increase in USDT; instead, there was a net outflow of 0.4 billion, though this is not significant.

Moreover, USDC saw a net outflow for the second consecutive day, with a net outflow of 6.57 billion today. Adding yesterday’s net inflow of 6.49 billion, U.S.-based capital inflows increased by 1.3 billion over the two days—a very positive figure.

Furthermore, the return of U.S. funds often coincides with ETF inflows, suggesting that sentiment among U.S. traders is gradually becoming optimistic. Even though the market is currently in a correction phase, this does not affect optimism for the future outlook.

Overall Summary:

Although the market is currently correcting, both technical indicators and market data look very promising, leaning towards optimism. If this pullback goes deeper, combined with the return of capital and ETF inflows, the real market rally may not be far off.

First of all, congratulations to the long-side friends who have waited so long—spring has finally arrived!