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We are starting to see expectations for Fed rate cuts be kicked down the road
- Strong retail spending sales overnight saw the expectations for the Fed rate cut in March to be dropped to a 50% chance of a cut.
- Plus are seeing Fed speakers also say the Fed still needs to be cautionary
- I think that's because SOME inflation is creeping up – Plus we do have strong US eco news - Retails sales and Fed'beige book (another eco read)...
- Strong retail spending sales overnight saw the expectations for the Fed rate cut in March to be dropped to a 50% chance of a cut.
- Plus are seeing Fed speakers also say the Fed still needs to be cautionary
- I think that's because SOME inflation is creeping up – Plus we do have strong US eco news - Retails sales and Fed'beige book (another eco read)...
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👉🏻 US payrolls rose 199,000 in Nov
👉🏻 Unemployement rate falls to 3.7%
👉🏻 Unemployement rate falls to 3.7%
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Hospital PMI shows slower growth in Oct w/ all indicators moving lower and employment index slipping into contraction territory; the subsector's margins have been severely squeezed by rising costs, despite overall strong performance post-covid:
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If the ten-year U.S. Treasury yield, the anchor of global asset pricing, declines, will the tide of biomedicine rise again?
Early biotechnology cannot support itself and relies heavily on external capital for blood transfusions. When the 10-year U.S. bond yield, the anchor of global asset pricing, rises to about 5%, it means that the risk-free rate of return reaches about 5%, and you can make money while si...
Early biotechnology cannot support itself and relies heavily on external capital for blood transfusions. When the 10-year U.S. bond yield, the anchor of global asset pricing, rises to about 5%, it means that the risk-free rate of return reaches about 5%, and you can make money while si...
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The recent volatility in the U.S. 10-year Treasury yield has been significant, but the overall trend is expected to be a volatile downward trend. It is almost certain that this round of interest rate hikes is coming to an end, so preparing ahead and reviewing historical experience can help to be prepared for any situation.
By analyzing the experience of several interest rate hike cycles ending in the past few decades, some general ru...
By analyzing the experience of several interest rate hike cycles ending in the past few decades, some general ru...
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The economy is great, why are people ''feeling'' so poor?
Well - how is this for a feeling?
Since April 2020:
1) Inflation up a cumulative 20%
2) But median wages up only 12%
3) Monthly mortgage installments to buy the median house: up from $1000 to $2300 (!) $Invesco QQQ Trust(QQQ.US$ $SPDR S&P 500 ETF(SPY.US$
Well - how is this for a feeling?
Since April 2020:
1) Inflation up a cumulative 20%
2) But median wages up only 12%
3) Monthly mortgage installments to buy the median house: up from $1000 to $2300 (!) $Invesco QQQ Trust(QQQ.US$ $SPDR S&P 500 ETF(SPY.US$
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US economy added fewer jobs than expected. Unemployment came in higher than expected. Wage growth was slower than expected.
All these are considered bad news. But to the stock market, they are good news.
It’s the classic bad news is good news scenario, as the “bad news” give the Fed some room to scale back on their rate hike campaign.
But something to caution - the bad news cannot go too bad. Else the market may tank. Strange? But that’s how the market works
$SPDR S&P 500 ETF(SPY.US$ $S&P 500 Index(.SPX.US$ $Tesla(TSLA.US$ $Apple(AAPL.US$ $Invesco QQQ Trust(QQQ.US$ $NVIDIA(NVDA.US$ $Amazon(AMZN.US$ $Arm Holdings(ARM.US$ $McDonald's(MCD.US$ $Starbucks(SBUX.US$ $PayPal(PYPL.US$ $Meta Platforms(META.US$ $Palantir(PLTR.US$ $Sea(SE.US$
All these are considered bad news. But to the stock market, they are good news.
It’s the classic bad news is good news scenario, as the “bad news” give the Fed some room to scale back on their rate hike campaign.
But something to caution - the bad news cannot go too bad. Else the market may tank. Strange? But that’s how the market works
$SPDR S&P 500 ETF(SPY.US$ $S&P 500 Index(.SPX.US$ $Tesla(TSLA.US$ $Apple(AAPL.US$ $Invesco QQQ Trust(QQQ.US$ $NVIDIA(NVDA.US$ $Amazon(AMZN.US$ $Arm Holdings(ARM.US$ $McDonald's(MCD.US$ $Starbucks(SBUX.US$ $PayPal(PYPL.US$ $Meta Platforms(META.US$ $Palantir(PLTR.US$ $Sea(SE.US$
From YouTube
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Here's a chart showing the distribution of interest rates on outstanding mortgages.
Over 30% of borrowers have rates below 3%, up from just ~5% of borrowers prior to the pandemic.
Virtually no new mortgages are being taken out at 7%+ interest rates that we currently see.
Strangely, there's a spike in mortgage rates at 9% or higher.
As we have stated multiple times, elevated housing prices are not a product of demand.
Rather, they're a product of minimal supply.
$S&P 500 Index(.SPX.US$ $SPDR S&P 500 ETF(SPY.US$ $Dow Jones Industrial Average(.DJI.US$ $U.S. 10-Year Treasury Notes Yield(US10Y.BD$
Over 30% of borrowers have rates below 3%, up from just ~5% of borrowers prior to the pandemic.
Virtually no new mortgages are being taken out at 7%+ interest rates that we currently see.
Strangely, there's a spike in mortgage rates at 9% or higher.
As we have stated multiple times, elevated housing prices are not a product of demand.
Rather, they're a product of minimal supply.
$S&P 500 Index(.SPX.US$ $SPDR S&P 500 ETF(SPY.US$ $Dow Jones Industrial Average(.DJI.US$ $U.S. 10-Year Treasury Notes Yield(US10Y.BD$
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A quick post.
That was a big fun rally.
Now, let's get serious.
Why would you want to buy anything here? 😕 if your answer is "rates are coming down," - you had better hope not. That would be admitting they screwed up, and there is something broken. Truth is something(s) are broken. But Powell still CAN NOT cut rates. Inflation would soar. I've already explained why and I won't go into it again. Now, when these markets fall and disinflation sets in, he can (but shouldn't) and will lo...
That was a big fun rally.
Now, let's get serious.
Why would you want to buy anything here? 😕 if your answer is "rates are coming down," - you had better hope not. That would be admitting they screwed up, and there is something broken. Truth is something(s) are broken. But Powell still CAN NOT cut rates. Inflation would soar. I've already explained why and I won't go into it again. Now, when these markets fall and disinflation sets in, he can (but shouldn't) and will lo...
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In the near term, the market is very sensitive to events. One moment, when the yields hit 5%, market staged a sell off. Next moment, yields retreated, market rebounded
At one point, Powell came out to spook the market with his speech, the market tanked. And last week, Powell sounded dovish, and the market shot up and clocked the best week of the year
When job market came in hot last month, the market plunged. Then just last Friday, jobs report came in soft, the market cheered a...
At one point, Powell came out to spook the market with his speech, the market tanked. And last week, Powell sounded dovish, and the market shot up and clocked the best week of the year
When job market came in hot last month, the market plunged. Then just last Friday, jobs report came in soft, the market cheered a...
From YouTube
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SpyderCall : You are definitely right about taking some money off of the table after a 10% or 15% move