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Analysis of Recent Federal Reserve Developments (February 3–4, 2025)
The Federal Reserve’s recent communications highlight a cautious and data-dependent approach to monetary policy, shaped by mixed inflation signals, uncertainty around tariffs, and resilience in the labor market and consumer spending. Below is a synthesis of key themes and implications:
Inflation Dynamics: Progress and Risks...
The Federal Reserve’s recent communications highlight a cautious and data-dependent approach to monetary policy, shaped by mixed inflation signals, uncertainty around tariffs, and resilience in the labor market and consumer spending. Below is a synthesis of key themes and implications:
Inflation Dynamics: Progress and Risks...
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......Well, this morning there will be a sell-off across the spectrum of US risk assets, Asian stocks were lower, followed by European equities. Now, it's our turn. That said, as ugly as it looks, it was worse last night. As for those long cryptocurrencies, this has been an especially tough weekend. Those calling for a higher US Dollar, as our own Carley Garner has been doing, have simply nailed that trade.
.....The main event this week, outside of the political and perhaps the ...
.....The main event this week, outside of the political and perhaps the ...
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$SPDR S&P 500 ETF (SPY.US)$
Could have made more... but very content with this gain. Swung some puts over the weekend 🤤
Could have made more... but very content with this gain. Swung some puts over the weekend 🤤

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$Invesco QQQ Trust (QQQ.US)$
this is why I'm always so mad it always looks just like this when I trade usually it screws me instantly to
this is why I'm always so mad it always looks just like this when I trade usually it screws me instantly to

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Today’s session saw big tech stocks leading the way while broader indices showed signs of weakness. Here’s a breakdown:
🔹 Top Gainers:
✅ Tesla ( $Tesla (TSLA.US)$ ) +3.17% – Strong breakout, testing resistance at $415+
✅ Google ( $Alphabet-A (GOOGL.US)$) +1.84% – Continues its uptrend, reclaiming $204+
✅ Amazon ( $Amazon (AMZN.US)$) +1.63% – Holding above $238, near intraday highs
✅ Meta ( $Meta Platforms (META.US)$) +0.95% – Pulled back slightly but remains g...
🔹 Top Gainers:
✅ Tesla ( $Tesla (TSLA.US)$ ) +3.17% – Strong breakout, testing resistance at $415+
✅ Google ( $Alphabet-A (GOOGL.US)$) +1.84% – Continues its uptrend, reclaiming $204+
✅ Amazon ( $Amazon (AMZN.US)$) +1.63% – Holding above $238, near intraday highs
✅ Meta ( $Meta Platforms (META.US)$) +0.95% – Pulled back slightly but remains g...



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Winners beat losers at the NYSE on Thursday by a rough 7 to 2 margin and by about 2 to 1 at the Nasdaq. Advancing volume took a decisive 74.4% share of composite NYSE-listed trade and a 68.6 share of Nasdaq-listed activity. Now, here's the kicker. Aggregate trade increased by an impressive 12.6% day over day across names domiciled at 11 Wall Street and a "good enough" 2.8% d/d across Nasdaq-domiciled names. That appears to be quite meaningful coming after a week that incl...


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$NVIDIA (NVDA.US)$ 🚨🚨🚨
in less than 30 minutes the PCE numbers
Good PCE Data (Market Positive)
A good PCE report signals that inflation is cooling, which could support rate cuts or a more accommodative Fed stance.
Key metrics for a positive reaction:
✅ Headline PCE MoM: 0.2% or lower (suggests inflation is moderating)
✅ Headline PCE YoY: 2.5% or lower (approaching Fed’s 2% target)
✅ Core PCE MoM: 0.2% or lower (indicates stable inflation without volatility)
✅ Core PCE YoY: 2.7% or lower (consist...
in less than 30 minutes the PCE numbers
Good PCE Data (Market Positive)
A good PCE report signals that inflation is cooling, which could support rate cuts or a more accommodative Fed stance.
Key metrics for a positive reaction:
✅ Headline PCE MoM: 0.2% or lower (suggests inflation is moderating)
✅ Headline PCE YoY: 2.5% or lower (approaching Fed’s 2% target)
✅ Core PCE MoM: 0.2% or lower (indicates stable inflation without volatility)
✅ Core PCE YoY: 2.7% or lower (consist...
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