102856583 : From an investment perspective, Chevron's strategic positioning in low-cost oil assets has the following attractions and potential return opportunities:
1. Strong cash flow and ability to return value to shareholders.
Strong free cash flow:
Chevron's low-cost assets (such as the Permian and future Guyana projects) enable it to maintain robust cash flow amidst oil price fluctuations, with free cash flow exceeding 30 billion dollars in 2024, even maintaining positive inflow at a price of 70 dollars per barrel.
Stable dividends and buybacks:
Chevron is one of the few companies that have raised dividends for 36 consecutive years, with a current dividend yield of around **4.0%-4.3%**, significantly higher than the average level of S&P 500. The company also continues to conduct share buybacks, making it a typical shareholder-friendly enterprise.
2. Cyclical resilience and defensive asset structure.
Low breakeven point:
Chevron's majority of new projects have a breakeven point below $40 per barrel, allowing them to maintain profitability during periods of oil price decline, which is particularly important for investors looking to Hold long-term and ride out the cycles.
Diversification and resource security:
Its operations are highly concentrated in the USA and stable regions (such as Australia and Kazakhstan), with relatively low geopolitical risk.
III. Future Growth Potential and Asset Revaluation
Growth opportunities brought by the acquisition of Hess:
If the acquisition of Hess is successful, the future share of the Guyana oil field will become a new profit growth engine. The production capacity in this block is expected to double by 2027, and the market still sees potential for revaluation for Chevron.
Improving PB and reasonable valuation:
Currently, CVX's PE is about 12-13 times (far lower than the S&P 500 average), and the PEG ratio is also low, indicating that the valuation has not fully reflected its long-term low-cost Global Strategy and potential growth.
IV. Risks that investors should pay attention to
Uncertainty related to mergers and acquisitions: The merger case of Hess is still awaiting regulatory approval and may face legal disputes with Exxon regarding priority of Guyana assets.
Pressure from energy transition: If global policies strongly promote Carbon Neutrality, it may suppress the long-term valuation of traditional oil companies.
Oil price fluctuations remain a core variable: Despite low costs, profitability is still tied to the oil price cycle.
Summary and recommendations (from an investment perspective)
Long-term value investors: Chevron is a good candidate, possessing robust dividends, strong cash flow, and cyclical resilience, which can be viewed as a "defensive leader in the Energy Sector."

LTV Investor : Should we blindly follow the advice of bankers, or should we examine the actions and statements of oil company executives?
It is noteworthy that major oil companies are actively pursuing mergers and acquisitions to secure their inventory. This behavior suggests a significant trend in the industry.

Heartstrings : thanks for sharing

Bruski2023 : You’re 100% correct on everything here, but your missing two huge things. 1 the stock market cares little about anything you’ve stated, till it all comes crashing down, and 2 it’s an election year…there isn’t any chance we have a recession in a election year. Not only for sleepy joe’s hopes or reelection, but it hurts his opponents just as much. Not happening till after the election, and at that point there will probably be a new narrative and ATH in SPY and QQQ