Can the 8-Day Winning Streak of US Stocks Continue?

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Certainly, in the wake of the jobs report, the markets are currently estimating a mere 9.8% likelihood that the Federal Reserve will raise interest rates at its December meeting, as per the CME FedWatch Tool. This development was met with enthusiasm by both the stock and bond markets, with The S&P 500, the Dow Jones Industrial Average and the Nasdaq Composite achieving an eight-day winning streak. All three indices closed above their 200-day and 50-day moving averages, indicating a sustained positive trend and are likely to continue climbing higher in the future.

In the meantime, bond yields declined, resulting in a rise in bond prices. The 2-year Treasury yield fell by approximately 10 basis points to 4.845%, and the 10-year yield dropped by 9 basis points to 4.577%. This is particularly noteworthy when compared to the 5% yield on the 10-year bond just last month.

However, it's important to note that this doesn't necessarily signify a prolonged upswing in stocks or the end of the higher interest rate environment. Historically, when the Federal Reserve starts reducing interest rates, especially if it does so abruptly, it's an indication that the economy is struggling to the extent that it requires a boost from monetary policy.

🎙️Q:

1. What do you think of this market fluctuation?

2. What's your investment strategy?

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Cow Moo-ney

Nov 13, 2023 10:28

Nice run up

It has been a nice run up since the start of November.
The S&P 500 popped about 7% over the past two weeks. Tomorrow’s CPI could be key in determining whether the current run up can continue.
On Wed, retail sales data could offer some clues on the health of consumer spending. Investors would want to see if the economy is slowing down.
These are all important data point in helping Fed to make their next decision, though the market is pricing in no further rate hike this year.
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Nov 13, 2023 04:57

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Nov 13, 2023 03:45

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Jessica Amir

Nov 12, 2023 23:57

Three things to watch this week - Military talks, US CPI and retail sales & the shopping frenzy

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Cow Moo-ney

Nov 12, 2023 21:09

Winning streak

The US stock market will start the week with 2 consecutive winning weeks at the back of their mind.
Last Friday, Nasdaq rose more than 2%, posting its biggest single-day jump since 26 May - a result of a rally in the tech industry, which was led by the Magnificent 7.
So far the bullish seasonality trend is playing out quite nicely. Expect some form of pullbacks, but if key levels hold, we should be good.
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Cow Moo-ney

Nov 12, 2023 21:05

Busy week ahead

This week would be interesting to watch with CPI, Retails Sales data, Biden meeting with Xi Jinping, potential government shutdown, Opex day.
Expect huge volatility.
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Nov 12, 2023 21:03

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Nov 12, 2023 17:42

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Wall Street Summary
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Cow Moo-ney

Nov 12, 2023 00:15

Wall Street Rallied

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Except for Alphabet, the other 6 megacap stocks all had a more than 2% gain last Friday, with Microsoft soaring to a new all time high!
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