1. The Magic Number I predict today's QQQ closing: $612.8 Reason: On the previous trading day, QQQ closed down (614.31). Initial capital is usually conservative, and the technology sector lacks short-term momentum. Therefore, I expect a slight pullback or weak fluctuations on the first trading day. 2. Reasons On the first trading day of 2026, market sentiment typically reflects a state of "repricing + repositioning." Although AI and semiconductors remain long-term themes, recent options flows and trading volumes indicate that funds are not in a hurry to make aggressive moves at the beginning of the year; instead, it seems more like they are waiting for new macro signals. On the previous trading day, the options sentiment for QQQ leaned towards defense, with the trading volume of puts slightly higher than that of calls—this suggests that while the market is not entirely bearish, there is indeed a short-term hedging demand. At the same time, technology stocks have accumulated significant gains by 2025. Investors are more inclined to "wait and see before entering the market" on the first day of the new year, especially given that interest rates, profit expectations, and the real demand in the AI industry chain still need time for verification. Therefore, I believe today's market will not experience strong FOMO; instead, it resembles a day of low volume, low volatility, and a more conservative reallocation. 3. Bullish or bearish? (2026 Q1 Market Sentiment) My stance: Neutral to slightly bullish, but not in a hurry to bottom fish. Why not be bearish? - AI, cloud computing, and semiconductors remain the main themes for 2026. - The long-term structure of QQQ is still in a bullish arrangement. - The profitability of large tech stocks remains strong. Why not turn immediately bullish? - Capital typically stays on the sidelines at the start of the year - The tech sector saw excessive gains in 2025 and needs time to digest - The options market indicates a short-term defensive bias - Need to wait for earnings season in mid-January to confirm direction Conclusion: For Q1 2026, I prefer 'buying on dips' over 'blindly chasing highs'. 4. Action Speaks Below is my first-day watchlist for 2026 (text version): 2026 Watchlist (Tech + Semiconductor + Defensive Stocks) Tech Focus: - MSFT (AI + Cloud) - NVDA (GPU + AI Infrastructure) - AMZN (Cloud + Retail) Semiconductors: - AMD (AI PCs + GPUs) - AVGO (AI Supply Chain) - TSM (Foundry Services) Defensive sectors: - XLP (Consumer Staples) - XLV (Healthcare) Chart Setup (What I'm monitoring) - 5MA / 10MA / 20MA (Short-term trend) - RSI (Overbought or not) - Trading volume (Inflow of new capital) - Previous high 623–625 area (Resistance) - 600–605 range (support)
Reason: On the previous trading day, QQQ closed down (614.31). Initial capital is usually conservative, and the technology sector lacks short-term momentum. Therefore, I expect a slight pullback or weak fluctuations on the first trading day.
On the first trading day of 2026, market sentiment typically reflects a state of "repricing + repositioning." Although AI and semiconductors remain long-term themes, recent options flows and trading volumes indicate that funds are not in a hurry to make aggressive moves at the beginning of the year; instead, it seems more like they are waiting for new macro signals. On the previous trading day, the options sentiment for QQQ leaned towards defense, with the trading volume of puts slightly higher than that of calls—this suggests that while the market is not entirely bearish, there is indeed a short-term hedging demand.
At the same time, technology stocks have accumulated significant gains by 2025. Investors are more inclined to "wait and see before entering the market" on the first day of the new year, especially given that interest rates, profit expectations, and the real demand in the AI industry chain still need time for verification. Therefore, I believe today's market will not experience strong FOMO; instead, it resembles a day of low volume, low volatility, and a more conservative reallocation.
- AI, cloud computing, and semiconductors remain the main themes for 2026.
- The long-term structure of QQQ is still in a bullish arrangement.
- The profitability of large tech stocks remains strong.
- Capital typically stays on the sidelines at the start of the year
- The tech sector saw excessive gains in 2025 and needs time to digest
- The options market indicates a short-term defensive bias
- Need to wait for earnings season in mid-January to confirm direction
Below is my first-day watchlist for 2026 (text version):
Tech Focus:
- MSFT (AI + Cloud)
- NVDA (GPU + AI Infrastructure)
- AMZN (Cloud + Retail)
Semiconductors:
- AMD (AI PCs + GPUs)
- AVGO (AI Supply Chain)
- TSM (Foundry Services)
Defensive sectors:
- XLP (Consumer Staples)
- XLV (Healthcare)
- 5MA / 10MA / 20MA (Short-term trend)
- RSI (Overbought or not)
- Trading volume (Inflow of new capital)
- Previous high 623–625 area (Resistance)
- 600–605 range (support)